Superspreading k-cores at the center of COVID-19 pandemic persistence

Matteo Serafino; Higor S. Monteiro; Shaojun Luo; Saulo D. S. Reis; Carles Igual; Antonio S. Lima Neto; Matias Travizano; José S. Andrade, Jr.; Hernán A. Makse

doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009865

arXiv · 2103.08685

Superspreading k-cores at the center of COVID-19 pandemic persistence

Matteo Serafino·Higor S. Monteiro·Shaojun Luo·Saulo D. S. Reis·Carles Igual·Antonio S. Lima Neto·Matias Travizano·José S. Andrade, Jr.·Hernán A. Makse

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Abstract

The spread of COVID-19 caused by the recently discovered SARS-CoV-2 virus has become a worldwide problem with devastating consequences. To slow down the spread of the pandemic, mass quarantines have been implemented globally, provoking further social and economic disruptions. Here, we implement a comprehensive contact tracing network analysis to find an optimized quarantine protocol to dismantle the chain of transmission of coronavirus with minimal disruptions to society. We track billions of anonymized GPS human mobility datapoints from a compilation of hundreds of mobile apps deployed in Latin America to monitor the evolution of the contact network of disease transmission before and after the confinements. As a consequence of the lockdowns, people's mobility across the region decreases by $\sim$53\%, which results in a drastic disintegration of the transmission network by $\sim$90\%. However, this disintegration did not halt the spreading of the disease. Our analysis indicates that superspreading k-core structures persist in the transmission network to prolong the pandemic. Once the k-cores are identified, an optimized strategy to break the chain of transmission is to quarantine a minimal number of 'weak links' with high betweenness centrality connecting the large k-cores. As countries built contact tracing apps to fight the pandemic, our results could turn into a valuable resource to help deploy quarantine protocols with minimized disruptions.

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Matteo Serafino, Higor S. Monteiro, Shaojun Luo, Saulo D. S. Reis, Carles Igual, Antonio S. Lima Neto, Matias Travizano, José S. Andrade, Jr., Hernán A. Makse. 2021-03-15. Superspreading k-cores at the center of COVID-19 pandemic persistence. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009865

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