arXiv subjects

Matteo Serafino

Publications and source records attributed to Matteo Serafino.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

Analysis of flows in social media uncovers a new multi-step model of information spread

Since the advent of the internet, communication paradigms have continuously evolved, resulting in a present-day landscape where the dynamics of information dissemination have undergone a complete transformation compared to the past. In this study, we challenge the conventional two-step flow model of communication, a long-standing paradigm in the field. Our approach introduces a more intricate multi-step and multi-actor model that effectively captures the complexities of modern information spread. We test our hypothesis by examining the spread of information on the Twitter platform. Our findings support the multi-step and multi-actor model hypothesis. In this framework, influencers (individuals with a significant presence in social media) emerges as new central figures and partially take on the role previously attributed to opinion leaders. However, this does not apply to opinion leaders who adapt and reaffirm their influential position on social media, here defined as opinion-leading influencers. Additionally, we note a substantial number of adopters directly accessing information sources, suggesting a potentialdecline if influence in both opinion leaders and influencers. Finally, we found distinctions in the diffusion patterns of left- and right-leaning groups, indicating variations in the underlying structure of information dissemination across different ideologies.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

Fibration symmetries and cluster synchronization in the Caenorhabditis elegans connectome

Capturing how the Caenorhabditis elegans connectome structure gives rise to its neuron functionality remains unclear. It is through fiber symmetries found in its neuronal connectivity that synchronization of a group of neurons can be determined. To understand these we investigate graph symmetries and search for such in the symmetrized versions of the forward and backward locomotive sub-networks of the Caenorhabditi elegans worm neuron network. The use of ordinarily differential equations simulations admissible to these graphs are used to validate the predictions of these fiber symmetries and are compared to the more restrictive orbit symmetries. Additionally fibration symmetries are used to decompose these graphs into their fundamental building blocks which reveal units formed by nested loops or multilayered fibers. It is found that fiber symmetries of the connectome can accurately predict neuronal synchronization even under not idealized connectivity as long as the dynamics are within stable regimes of simulations.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2024

Analyzing User Ideologies and Shared News During the 2019 Argentinian Elections

The extensive data generated on social media platforms allow us to gain insights over trending topics and public opinions. Additionally, it offers a window into user behavior, including their content engagement and news sharing habits. In this study, we analyze the relationship between users' political ideologies and the news they share during Argentina's 2019 election period. Our findings reveal that users predominantly share news that aligns with their political beliefs, despite accessing media outlets with diverse political leanings. Moreover, we observe a consistent pattern of users sharing articles related to topics biased to their preferred candidates, highlighting a deeper level of political alignment in online discussions. We believe that this systematic analysis framework can be applied to similar scenarios in different countries, especially those marked by significant political polarization, akin to Argentina.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2024

Suspended accounts align with the Internet Research Agency misinformation campaign to influence the 2016 US election

The ongoing debate surrounding the impact of the Internet Research Agency s (IRA) social media campaign during the 2016 U.S. presidential election has largely overshadowed the involvement of other actors. Our analysis brings to light a substantial group of suspended Twitter users, outnumbering the IRA user group by a factor of 60, who align with the ideologies of the IRA campaign. Our study demonstrates that this group of suspended Twitter accounts significantly influenced individuals categorized as undecided or weak supporters, potentially with the aim of swaying their opinions, as indicated by Granger causality.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2023

Evaluating the Relationship Between News Source Sharing and Political Beliefs

In an era marked by an abundance of news sources, access to information significantly influences public opinion. Notably, the bias of news sources often serves as an indicator of individuals' political leanings. This study explores this hypothesis by examining the news sharing behavior of politically active social media users, whose political ideologies were identified in a previous study. Using correspondence analysis, we estimate the Media Sharing Index (MSI), a measure that captures bias in media outlets and user preferences within a hidden space. During Argentina's 2019 election on Twitter, we observed a predictable pattern: center-right individuals predominantly shared media from center-right biased outlets. However, it is noteworthy that those with center-left inclinations displayed a more diverse media consumption, which is a significant finding. Despite a noticeable polarization based on political affiliation observed in a retweet network analysis, center-left users showed more diverse media sharing preferences, particularly concerning the MSI. Although these findings are specific to Argentina, the developed methodology can be applied in other countries to assess the correlation between users' political leanings and the media they share.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

Shifting Polarization and Twitter News Influencers between two U.S. Presidential Elections

Social media are decentralized, interactive, and transformative, empowering users to produce and spread information to influence others. This has changed the dynamics of political communication that were previously dominated by traditional corporate news media. Having hundreds of millions of tweets collected over the 2016 and 2020 U.S. presidential elections gave us a unique opportunity to measure the change in polarization and the diffusion of political information. We analyze the diffusion of political information among Twitter users and investigate the change of polarization between these elections and how this change affected the composition and polarization of influencers and their retweeters. We identify "influencers" by their ability to spread information and classify them into those affiliated with a media organization, a political organization, or unaffiliated. Most of the top influencers were affiliated with media organizations during both elections. We found a clear increase from 2016 to 2020 in polarization among influencers and among those whom they influence. Moreover, 75% of the top influencers in 2020 were not present in 2016, demonstrating that such status is difficult to retain. Between 2016 and 2020, 10% of influencers affiliated with media were replaced by center- or right-orientated influencers affiliated with political organizations and unaffiliated influencers.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

Superspreading k-cores at the center of COVID-19 pandemic persistence

The spread of COVID-19 caused by the recently discovered SARS-CoV-2 virus has become a worldwide problem with devastating consequences. To slow down the spread of the pandemic, mass quarantines have been implemented globally, provoking further social and economic disruptions. Here, we implement a comprehensive contact tracing network analysis to find an optimized quarantine protocol to dismantle the chain of transmission of coronavirus with minimal disruptions to society. We track billions of anonymized GPS human mobility datapoints from a compilation of hundreds of mobile apps deployed in Latin America to monitor the evolution of the contact network of disease transmission before and after the confinements. As a consequence of the lockdowns, people's mobility across the region decreases by $\sim$53\%, which results in a drastic disintegration of the transmission network by $\sim$90\%. However, this disintegration did not halt the spreading of the disease. Our analysis indicates that superspreading k-core structures persist in the transmission network to prolong the pandemic. Once the k-cores are identified, an optimized strategy to break the chain of transmission is to quarantine a minimal number of 'weak links' with high betweenness centrality connecting the large k-cores. As countries built contact tracing apps to fight the pandemic, our results could turn into a valuable resource to help deploy quarantine protocols with minimized disruptions.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Why polls fail to predict elections

In the past decade we have witnessed the failure of traditional polls in predicting presidential election outcomes across the world. To understand the reasons behind these failures we analyze the raw data of a trusted pollster which failed to predict, along with the rest of the pollsters, the surprising 2019 presidential election in Argentina which has led to a major market collapse in that country. Analysis of the raw and re-weighted data from longitudinal surveys performed before and after the elections reveals clear biases (beyond well-known low-response rates) related to mis-representation of the population and, most importantly, to social-desirability biases, i.e., the tendency of respondents to hide their intention to vote for controversial candidates. We then propose a longitudinal opinion tracking method based on big-data analytics from social media, machine learning, and network theory that overcomes the limits of traditional polls. The model achieves accurate results in the 2019 Argentina elections predicting the overwhelming victory of the candidate Alberto Fernández over the president Mauricio Macri; a result that none of the traditional pollsters in the country was able to predict. Beyond predicting political elections, the framework we propose is more general and can be used to discover trends in society; for instance, what people think about economics, education or climate change.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

True scale-free networks hidden by finite size effects

We analyze about two hundred naturally occurring networks with distinct dynamical origins to formally test whether the commonly assumed hypothesis of an underlying scale-free structure is generally viable. This has recently been questioned on the basis of statistical testing of the validity of power law distributions of network degrees by contrasting real data. Specifically, we analyze by finite-size scaling analysis the datasets of real networks to check whether purported departures from the power law behavior are due to the finiteness of the sample size. In this case, power laws would be recovered in the case of progressively larger cutoffs induced by the size of the sample. We find that a large number of the networks studied follow a finite size scaling hypothesis without any self-tuning. This is the case of biological protein interaction networks, technological computer and hyperlink networks, and informational networks in general. Marked deviations appear in other cases, especially infrastructure and transportation but also social networks. We conclude that underlying scale invariance properties of many naturally occurring networks are extant features often clouded by finite-size effects due to the nature of the sample data.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Community Detection in the Hyperbolic Space

Embedding a network in hyperbolic space can reveal interesting features for the network structure, especially in terms of self-similar characteristics. The hidden metric space, which can be thought of as the underlying structure of the network, is able to preserve some interesting features generally observed in real-world networks such as heterogeneity in the degree distribution, high clustering coefficient, and small-world effect. Moreover, the angular distribution of the nodes in the hyperbolic plane reveals a community structure of the embedded network. It is worth noting that, while a large body of literature compares well-known community detection algorithms, there is still no consensus on what defines an ideal community partition on a network. Moreover, heuristics for communities found on networks embedded in the hyperbolic space have been investigated here for the first time. We compare the partitions found on embedded networks to the partitions obtained before the embedding step, both for a synthetic network and for two real-world networks. The second part of this paper presents the application of our pipeline to a network of retweets in the context of the Italian elections. Our results uncover a community structure reflective of the political spectrum, encouraging further research on the application of community detection heuristics to graphs mapped onto hyperbolic planes.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

Statistical validation of financial time series via visibility graph

Statistical physics of complex systems exploits network theory not only to model, but also to effectively extract information from many dynamical real-world systems. A pivotal case of study is given by financial systems: market prediction represents an unsolved scientific challenge yet with crucial implications for society, as financial crises have devastating effects on real economies. Thus, nowadays the quest for a robust estimator of market efficiency is both a scientific and institutional priority. In this work we study the visibility graphs built from the time series of several trade market indices. We propose a validation procedure for each link of these graphs against a null hypothesis derived from ARCH-type modeling of such series. Building on this framework, we devise a market indicator that turns out to be highly correlated and even predictive of financial instability periods.

q-fin.RM↗