Scalable Bayesian Approach for the DINA Q-matrix Estimation Combining Stochastic Optimization and Variational Inference

Abstract

Diagnostic classification models (DCMs) offer statistical tools to inspect the fined-grained attribute of respondents' strengths and weaknesses. However, the diagnosis accuracy deteriorates when misspecification occurs in the predefined item-attribute relationship, which is encoded into a Q-matrix. To prevent such misspecification, methodologists have recently developed several Bayesian Q-matrix estimation methods for greater estimation flexibility. However, these methods become infeasible in the case of large-scale assessments with a large number of attributes and items. In this study, we focused on the deterministic inputs, noisy "and" gate (DINA) model and proposed a new framework for the Q-matrix estimation to find the Q-matrix with the maximum marginal likelihood. Based on this framework, we developed a scalable estimation algorithm for the DINA Q-matrix by constructing an iteration algorithm that utilizes stochastic optimization and variational inference. The simulation and empirical studies reveal that the proposed method achieves high-speed computation, good accuracy, and robustness to potential misspecifications, such as initial value's choices and hyperparameter settings. Thus, the proposed method can be a useful tool for estimating a Q-matrix in large-scale settings.