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arXiv · 2109.10237

An Empirical Bayes Robust Meta-Analytical-Predictive Prior to Adaptively Leverage External Data

Hongtao Zhang·Yueqi Shen·Alan Y Chiang·Judy Li
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Abstract

We propose a novel empirical Bayes robust MAP (EB-rMAP) prior to adaptively leverage external/historical data. Built on Box's prior predictive p-value, the EB-rMAP prior framework balances between model parsimony and flexibility through a tuning parameter. The proposed framework can be applied to binary, normal, and time-to-event endpoints. Computational aspects of the framework are efficient. Simulations results with different endpoints demonstrate that the EB-rMAP prior is robust in the presence of prior-data conflict while preserving statistical power. The proposed EB-rMAP prior is then applied to a clinical dataset that comprises of ten oncology clinical trials, including the perspective study.

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Hongtao Zhang, Yueqi Shen, Alan Y Chiang, Judy Li. 2021-09-21. An Empirical Bayes Robust Meta-Analytical-Predictive Prior to Adaptively Leverage External Data. https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.10237

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