Searcharxiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2204.07363

Is Surprisal in Issue Trackers Actionable?

James Caddy·Markus Wagner·Christoph Treude·Earl T. Barr·Miltiadis Allamanis
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Background. From information theory, surprisal is a measurement of how unexpected an event is. Statistical language models provide a probabilistic approximation of natural languages, and because surprisal is constructed with the probability of an event occuring, it is therefore possible to determine the surprisal associated with English sentences. The issues and pull requests of software repository issue trackers give insight into the development process and likely contain the surprising events of this process. Objective. Prior works have identified that unusual events in software repositories are of interest to developers, and use simple code metrics-based methods for detecting them. In this study we will propose a new method for unusual event detection in software repositories using surprisal. With the ability to find surprising issues and pull requests, we intend to further analyse them to determine if they actually hold importance in a repository, or if they pose a significant challenge to address. If it is possible to find bad surprises early, or before they cause additional troubles, it is plausible that effort, cost and time will be saved as a result. Method. After extracting the issues and pull requests from 5000 of the most popular software repositories on GitHub, we will train a language model to represent these issues. We will measure their perceived importance in the repository, measure their resolution difficulty using several analogues, measure the surprisal of each, and finally generate inferential statistics to describe any correlations.

Explore related subjects

cs.CLcs.SE

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

James Caddy, Markus Wagner, Christoph Treude, Earl T. Barr, Miltiadis Allamanis. 2022-04-15. Is Surprisal in Issue Trackers Actionable?. https://arxiv.org/abs/2204.07363

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Auto-RecSys: Harnessing Autonomous Research Agents for Industry-Scale Recommender System

Auto-research agents have shown the potential to automate hypothesis generation, experiment execution, and iterative refinement. However, scaling this paradigm to industry-scale recommendation models introduces two challenges: (1) long feedback loops, where model training can take days, making serial iteration prohibitively slow and requiring parallel exploration across multiple research directions; and (2) system complexity, where large configurations, fragile infrastructure dependencies, and multi-day GPU jobs require robust and recoverable execution. We present Auto-RecSys, an autonomous research system for long-horizon experimentation on industry-scale recommendation models. Auto-RecSys addresses these challenges through three harness designs: (1) distributed asynchronous execution for running multiple experiments in parallel across servers, (2) centralized cross-server memory for persistent and recoverable execution across sessions and failures, and (3) cognitive-procedural separation, where natural-language skill files guide LLM reasoning while deterministic scripts enforce operational correctness. Auto-RecSys further employs a dual-loop self-evolving architecture: an Execution Evolution Loop in which model-specific playbooks accumulate operational knowledge by recording failed attempts and crystallizing successful pipelines, and an Idea Evolution Loop in which experimental outcomes inform subsequent ideation. Evaluated on recommendation models, Auto-RecSys significantly reduces the human time required per experiment cycle and improves execution reliability as its playbooks mature.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Structurally Speaking: Motif-Oriented Graph Captioning through Bidirectional Graph-Text Translation

Graph captions should help readers understand graph structure, rather than simply translate adjacency matrices into long textual edge lists. A useful graph caption abstracts connectivity into recognizable motifs, such as hubs, paths, cycles, cliques, and bridges, because these motifs provide compact structural units that are easier to read, compare, and recover. In this paper, we study motif-oriented graph captioning as a bidirectional graph-text translation task, where captions must both preserve enough topology for graph recovery and express the graph through concise motif-level descriptions. We show that direct prompting of GPT-5.1 often produces graph-recoverable captions by enumerating node-to-node connections, but these captions are verbose and can contain inconsistent motif interpretations. To address this gap, we introduce Structurally Speaking, a lightweight structured prompting protocol that guides translation between explicit connectivity and motif-level abstraction. Experiments on a synthetic motif-based dataset show that structured prompting produces shorter and more motif-consistent captions while maintaining comparable graph recovery. These results suggest that explicit topology-to-motif reasoning guidance can make LLM-generated graph captions more interpretable without model fine-tuning.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Using Semantic Uncertainty to Estimate Transition Relevance in Turn-taking

Turn-taking is a fundamental mechanism that governs when interlocutors speak and listen. Although Spoken Dialogue Systems (SDS) exploit a range of linguistic, acoustic, and non-verbal cues, they produce ill-timed responses in unscripted interaction. A central challenge is anticipating Transition Relevance Places (TRPs), or opportunities, not obligations, for a listener to take the floor. Human listeners do not wait for turn endings; as an utterance unfolds, they use expectations about its developing meaning to anticipate TRPs and decide whether to take the floor. We examine whether these evolving expectations can be modeled through semantic uncertainty -- an LLM-derived measure of how strongly a turn so far constrains what may plausibly come next. To do so, we sample possible continuations of an ongoing turn and use changes in semantic dispersion to identify TRPs within turns. We evaluate this account on a dataset with TRP labels derived from real-time listener responses, rather than retrospective annotation. Our approach substantially outperforms prompt-based and fine-tuned text-only baselines, providing empirical support for the view that evolving semantic constraints inform perceived turn-taking opportunities in unscripted interaction.

cs.CL↗