A spectral surrogate model for stochastic simulators computed from trajectory samples

Abstract

Stochastic simulators are non-deterministic computer models which provide a different response each time they are run, even when the input parameters are held at fixed values. They arise when additional sources of uncertainty are affecting the computer model, which are not explicitly modeled as input parameters. The uncertainty analysis of stochastic simulators requires their repeated evaluation for different values of the input variables, as well as for different realizations of the underlying latent stochasticity. The computational cost of such analyses can be considerable, which motivates the construction of surrogate models that can approximate the original model and its stochastic response, but can be evaluated at much lower cost. We propose a surrogate model for stochastic simulators based on spectral expansions. Considering a certain class of stochastic simulators that can be repeatedly evaluated for the same underlying random event, we view the simulator as a random field indexed by the input parameter space. For a fixed realization of the latent stochasticity, the response of the simulator is a deterministic function, called trajectory. Based on samples from several such trajectories, we approximate the latter by sparse polynomial chaos expansion and compute analytically an extended Karhunen-Lo\`eve expansion (KLE) to reduce its dimensionality. The uncorrelated but dependent random variables of the KLE are modeled by advanced statistical techniques such as parametric inference, vine copula modeling, and kernel density estimation. The resulting surrogate model approximates the marginals and the covariance function, and allows to obtain new realizations at low computational cost. We observe that in our numerical examples, the first mode of the KLE is by far the most important, and investigate this phenomenon and its implications.