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arXiv · 2303.07285

The Dynamics of Instability

César Barilla·Duarte Gonçalves
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Abstract

We study a model in which two players with opposing interests try to alter a status quo through instability-generating actions. We show that instability can be used to secure longer-term durable changes, even if it is costly to generate and does not generate short-term gains. In equilibrium, instability generated by a player decreases when the status quo favors them more. Equilibrium always exhibits a region of stable states in which the status quo persists. As players' threat power increases, this region shrinks, ultimately collapsing to a single stable state that is supported via a deterrence mechanism. There is long-run path-dependency and inequity: although instability eventually leads to a stable state, it typically selects the least favorable one for the initially disadvantaged player.

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César Barilla, Duarte Gonçalves. 2023-03-13. The Dynamics of Instability. https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.07285

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