Discrete Incremental Voting

Abstract

We consider a type of pull voting suitable for discrete numeric opinions which can be compared on a linear scale, for example, 1 ('disagree strongly'), 2 ('disagree'), $\ldots,$ 5 ('agree strongly'). On observing the opinion of a random neighbour, a vertex changes its opinion incrementally towards the value of the neighbour's opinion, if different. For opinions drawn from a set $\{1,2,\ldots,k\}$, the opinion of the vertex would change by $+1$ if the opinion of the neighbour is larger, or by $-1$, if it is smaller. It is not clear how to predict the outcome of this process, but we observe that the total weight of the system, that is, the sum of the individual opinions of all vertices, is a martingale. This allows us analyse the outcome of the process on some classes of dense expanders such as clique graphs $K_n$ and random graphs $ G_{n,p}$ for suitably large $p$. If the average of the original opinions satisfies $i \le c \le i+1$ for some integer $i$, then the asymptotic probability that opinion $i$ wins is $i+1-c$, and the probability that opinion $i+1$ wins is $c-i$. With high probability, the winning opinion cannot be other than $i$ or $i+1$. To contrast this, we show that for a path and opinions $0,1,2$ arranged initially in non-decreasing order along the path, the outcome is very different. Any of the opinions can win with constant probability, provided that each of the two extreme opinions $0$ and $2$ is initially supported by a constant fraction of vertices.