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arXiv · 2308.04853

Aggregated demand flexibility prediction of residential thermostatically controlled loads and participation in electricity balance markets

Alejandro Martín-Crespo·Enrique Baeyens·Sergio Saludes-Rodil·Fernando Frechoso-Escudero
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Abstract

The aggregate demand flexibility of a set of thermostatically controlled residential loads (TCLs) can be represented by a virtual battery (VB) in order to manage their participation in the electricity markets. For this purpose, it is necessary to know in advance and with a high level of reliability the maximum power that can be supplied by the aggregation of TCLs. A probability function of the power that can be supplied by a VB is introduced. This probability function is used to predict the demand flexibility using a new experimental probabilistic method based on a combination of Monte Carlo simulation and extremum search by bisection algorithm (MC&ESB). As a result, the maximum flexibility power that a VB can provide with a certain guaranteed probability is obtained. The performance and validity of the proposed method are demonstrated in three different case studies where a VB bids its aggregate power in the Spanish electricity balancing markets (SEBM).

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Alejandro Martín-Crespo, Enrique Baeyens, Sergio Saludes-Rodil, Fernando Frechoso-Escudero. 2023-08-09. Aggregated demand flexibility prediction of residential thermostatically controlled loads and participation in electricity balance markets. https://doi.org/10.1155/er/8819201

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