Searcharxiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2309.07954

Simulation-based inference for stochastic gravitational wave background data analysis

James Alvey·Uddipta Bhardwaj·Valerie Domcke·Mauro Pieroni·Christoph Weniger
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

The next generation of space- and ground-based facilities promise to reveal an entirely new picture of the gravitational wave sky: thousands of galactic and extragalactic binary signals, as well as stochastic gravitational wave backgrounds (SGWBs) of unresolved astrophysical and possibly cosmological signals. These will need to be disentangled to achieve the scientific goals of experiments such as LISA, Einstein Telescope, or Cosmic Explorer. We focus on one particular aspect of this challenge: reconstructing an SGWB from (mock) LISA data. We demonstrate that simulation-based inference (SBI) - specifically truncated marginal neural ratio estimation (TMNRE) - is a promising avenue to overcome some of the technical difficulties and compromises necessary when applying more traditional methods such as Monte Carlo Markov Chains (MCMC). To highlight this, we show that we can reproduce results from traditional methods both for a template-based and agnostic search for an SGWB. Moreover, as a demonstration of the rich potential of SBI, we consider the injection of a population of low signal-to-noise ratio supermassive black hole transient signals into the data. TMNRE can implicitly marginalize over this complicated parameter space, enabling us to directly and accurately reconstruct the stochastic (and instrumental noise) contributions. We publicly release our TMNRE implementation in the form of the code saqqara.

Explore related subjects

gr-qcastro-ph.COastro-ph.IMhep-ph

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

James Alvey, Uddipta Bhardwaj, Valerie Domcke, Mauro Pieroni, Christoph Weniger. 2023-09-14. Simulation-based inference for stochastic gravitational wave background data analysis. https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.07954

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Electrovacuum Black Hole Uniqueness

We prove the black hole uniqueness conjecture in the axially symmetric, stationary, electrovacuum setting, subject to the refined asymptotic analysis of the associated singular harmonic maps, which includes an analyticity hypothesis at the axes. More precisely, it is shown that any asymptotically flat solution of the Einstein--Maxwell equations in this class, with more than one black hole horizon component is either: Majumdar--Papapetrou, up to a duality rotation, in which case all logarithmic angle defects vanish, or every finite axis rod logarithmic angle defect is strictly negative and hence every interaction force is strictly attractive. The proof extends the singular harmonic map method used for vacuum Kerr uniqueness in [18].

gr-qc↗
arXiv2026

Constraining Modified Mass-to-Horizon Cosmology Through Primordial Inflationary Observables

We investigate slow-roll inflation in a modified cosmological framework inspired by a generalized mass-to-horizon relation (MHR), $M=\gamma {c^2 L^n}/{G}$, where $n$ is a real parameter and $\gamma$ a dimensional constant. Using Padmanabhan's emergence paradigm, we derive the modified Friedmann equations for a flat FRW universe and analyze the dynamics of a canonical scalar field (inflaton) under the slow-roll approximation. We study the resulting inflationary phenomenology for power-law and Starobinsky potentials. For power-law potentials, the MHR modification fails to reconcile these models with current CMB constraints on $r$ and $n_s$. In contrast, Starobinsky inflation exhibits significant sensitivity to deviations from $n=1$. A perturbative analysis ($n=1+\Delta$) yields corrections to inflationary observables. We observe that the scalar power-spectrum normalization, under a fixed-Starobinsky prescription, imposes the stringent constraint $0.960 \lesssim n \lesssim 1.040$ for $N=60$ efolds. This is considerably tighter than spectral-index bounds. Our results establish inflation, particularly Starobinsky-like models, as a sensitive probe of generalized horizon thermodynamics and departures from standard MHR scaling.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2026

Improving the Sensitivity of Gravitational Wave Detection with Weighted Conformal Prediction

In the last decade, kilometre-scale interferometric gravitational-wave detectors have observed hundreds of compact binary mergers, the majority of which are binary black holes. However, the data are noise-dominated, and multiple independent search algorithms (pipelines) are used to enhance sensitivity and improve robustness. Rather than the standard approach of selecting the most significant pipeline output, we combine the outputs from all pipelines using a conformal prediction-based framework to provide statistically rigorous confidence estimates for candidate events. While combining pipelines improves sensitivity and ranking robustness, it requires a principled statistical framework that remains valid as data properties evolve across observing runs. A key challenge is distribution shifts between simulated datasets used for training and calibration and the real, unlabelled, observations used for testing, which can invalidate coverage guarantees and bias confidence estimates. In this work, we address this challenge by incorporating likelihood-ratio reweighting into our conformal prediction framework to account for covariate shift. Using mock datasets containing simulated signals, we demonstrate that weighted conformal prediction restores well-calibrated coverage under covariate shift and increases the confidence of events near the detection threshold, recovering true signals that would otherwise be missed.

gr-qc↗