Understanding the Impact of Seasonal Climate Change on Canada's Economy by Region and by Sector

Abstract

To assess the impact of climate change on the Canadian economy, we investigate the relationship between seasonal climate variables and economic growth across provinces and economic sectors. We also provide projections of climate change impacts up to the year of 2050, taking into account the diverse climate change patterns and economic conditions across Canada. Our results indicate that rising Winter temperature anomalies have a notable adverse impact on Canadian economic growth. Province-wide, Quebec, Manitoba, and Ontario are anticipated to experience larger negative impacts, whereas British Columbia is less vulnerable. Industry-wide, Finance and Real Estate, Science and Technology, and Information, Culture and Recreation are consistently projected to see mild benefits, while adverse effects are predicted for Manufacturing, Agriculture, and Mining. The disparities of climate change effects between provinces and industries highlight the need for governments to tailor their policies accordingly, and offer targeted assistance to regions and industries that are particularly vulnerable in the face of climate change. Targeted approaches to climate change mitigation are likely to be more effective than one-size-fits-all policies for the whole economy.