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arXiv · 2312.02636

A new meteor shower from comet 46P/Wirtanen expected in December 2023

Jeremie Vaubaillon·Qhanzhi Ye·Auriane Egal·Mikiya Sato·Danielle Moser
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Abstract

Context. Comet 46P/Wirtanen is a near-Earth object (NEO) for which no associated meteor shower has ever been reported. Aims. This study is aimed at improving our understanding of why there has been no observed shower activity for this NEO to date, as well as to consider whether any past activity could be uncovered from the post-prediction results. Methods. The usual dynamic tools for meteoroid streams were used to describe the behavior of the particles ejected by the comet. The resulting modeled meteoroid stream was thoroughly inspected for collisions between the stream and the Earth. Results. The results show a possible encounter forecast for December 12, 2023, between 8:00 and 12:30 UT. The slow entry velocity is typically known to cause dim meteors. The activity level of the shower is highly uncertain due to the absence of reported past showers. Conclusions. Overall, the most optimal observations on the forecasted day would be achieved from Eastern Australia, New Zealand, and Oceania. These observations will help constrain the size distribution of meteoroids from comet 46P/Wirtanen in the millimeter range.

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Jeremie Vaubaillon, Qhanzhi Ye, Auriane Egal, Mikiya Sato, Danielle Moser. 2023-12-05. A new meteor shower from comet 46P/Wirtanen expected in December 2023. https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.02636

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