arXiv subjects

Jeremie Vaubaillon

Publications and source records attributed to Jeremie Vaubaillon.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Twin Impact Lunar Telescope network: Lunar Impact Flash observations of the 2025 Geminids

Meteoroid impacts on the Moon, observed from Earth as flashes typically lasting a few tens of milliseconds, have been monitored for three decades for determining meteoroids' size and mass frequency distribution in the cm to dm range. Studies link these observed impact events to fresh craters advancing our understanding of energy partitioning during an impact. Currently we are transitioning to a new era where lunar impact flashes (LIFs) can be used to supplement upcoming lunar seismology to study the internal lunar structure. Here we present results from the first station of a telescope network under development for continuous LIF monitoring. Observations were carried out during the Geminids 2025 campaign, initiated by the LUMIO Science Team in the framework of their public engagement activities. We detected 53 potential impact flashes and confirmed 11 of them through multiframe observations, and independent detections by other observers. We present evidence suggesting that some of the yet unconfirmed events may be real. Our confirmed events range between magnitude +7.5 and +10.4, primarily in the V and R band. We obtained a high rate of observations per hour, highlighting the importance of high ZHR meteoroid streams for observing LIFs. We also discuss the scientific value of potential LIFs that remain unconfirmed in optical data alone. Even without multi station confirmation, these events can correlate to seismic signals in future lunar seismic networks, thereby providing useful physical constraints on impact processes. This approach would also allow stations equipped with a single telescope/camera to meaningfully contribute to the network.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2026

Meteor clusters: tracing meteoroid fragmentation in near-Earth space

Meteor clusters are typically defined as groups of meteors that appear close together in both space and time. To date, only a handful of such events have been recorded instrumentally and analysed in detail. In many documented cases, thermal stress has been identified as the most likely cause of meteoroid fragmentation near Earth. This paper documents two further cases and provides a summary of all currently known clusters. The two clusters that were recorded over Hawaii Island in 2023 and 2024 represent two distinct scenarios. The 2024 meteor cluster was characterised by a dominant mass body and, with the fragments arranged along the antisolar direction according to their mass. Such cases enable us to reliably determine the age of the cluster and identify the most likely formation scenario. This cluster was around three days old, and the thermal stress was the most likely mechanism of its formation. The 2023 cluster was not such a case. It does not contain a mass dominant body, nor are its fragments arranged by their mass. Therefore, it was only possible to estimate its age to be no more than four days. Furthermore, other potential formation mechanisms besides thermal stress cannot be ruled out. This fact was observed in all analysed clusters. All clusters known up to date were formed in close proximity to Earth. The volume of a cluster increases with its age. This means that older clusters, formed by the fragmentation far away from Earth may remain undetected, as their fragments are also dispersed too widely to be observed by local experiment. However, global networks can detect such dispersed clusters.

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arXiv2025

Perihelion history and atmospheric survival as primary drivers of the Earth`s meteorite record

Models predict that more than half of all impacting meteoroids should be carbonaceous, reflecting the abundance of carbon-rich asteroids in the main belt and near-Earth space. Yet carbonaceous chondrites represent only about 4% of meteorites recovered worldwide. Here we analyse 7,982 meteoroid impacts and 540 potential meteorite falls from 19 global observation networks and demonstrate that intense thermal stress at low perihelion distances coupled with the filtering effect of Earth`s atmosphere explains this mismatch. Meteoroids repeatedly subjected to intense thermal cycling near the Sun fracture and weaken, removing the most friable objects even before atmospheric entry. Our data also show that tidally disrupted meteoroid streams produce especially fragile fragments that rarely survive to the ground. Consequently, compact, higher-strength, thermally cycled bodies dominate the meteorite record. These findings reconcile the predicted carbonaceous flux with its scarcity in collections, underscoring how orbital evolution and atmospheric filtering shape the materials that reach Earth`s surface.

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arXiv2025

A very young tau-Herculid meteor cluster observed during a 2022 shower outburst

To date only very few meteor clusters have been instrumentally recorded. This means that every new detection is an important contribution to the understanding of these phenomena, which are thought to be evidence of the meteoroid fragmentation in the Solar System. On 31 May 2022, at 6:48:55 UT, a cluster consisting of 52 meteors was detected within 8.5 seconds during a predicted outburst of the tau-Herculid meteor shower. The aim of this paper is to reconstruct the atmospheric trajectories of the meteors and use the collected information to deduce the origin of the cluster. The meteors were recorded by two video cameras during an airborne campaign. Due to only the single station observation, their trajectories were estimated under the assumption that they belonged to the meteor shower. The mutual positions of the fragments, together with their photometric masses, was used to model the processes leading to the formation of the cluster. The physical properties of the cluster meteors are very similar to the properties of the tau-Herculids. This finding confirms the assumption of the shower membership used for the computation of atmospheric trajectories. This was the third cluster that we have studied in detail, but the first one where we do not see the mass separation of the particles. The cluster is probably less than 2.5 days old, which is too short for such a complete mass separation. Such an age would imply disintegration due to thermal stress. However, we cannot rule out an age of only a few hours, which would allow for other fragmentation mechanisms.

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arXiv2024

Near Earth stream decoherence revisited: the limits of orbital similarity

Context. Orbital similarity measures, such as the D-values, have been extensively used in meteor science to identify meteoroid streams and associate meteorite falls with near-Earth objects (NEOs). However, the chaotic nature of near-Earth space challenges the long-term reliability of these measures for stream identification, and the increasing size of our fireball, meteorite fall, and NEO databases make random associations more common. Despite this, many researchers erroneously continue to use orbital similarity beyond its inherent limits. Aims. We aim to assess the statistical significance of using orbital similarity measures for identifying streams of meteoroids or asteroids and explore the implications of chaotic dynamics on the long-term coherence of these streams. Conclusions. The rapid decoherence of meteoroid streams and the chaotic dynamics of near-Earth orbits suggest that no reported stream or NEO associations of meteorites or fireballs are statistically significant according to orbital discriminates. Many are likely coincidental rather than indicative of a true physical link. However, several statistically significant clusters found within the NEO population are consistent with a tidal disruption formation. This contrast and lack of statistically significant associations amongst the impact datasets is likely due to the fireball databases being 2 orders of magnitude smaller than the NEO database and the higher intrinsic uncertainties of fireball observation derived orbits.

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arXiv2024

A generalizable method for estimating meteor shower false positives

Context. The determination of meteor shower or parent body associations is inherently a statistical problem. Traditional methods, primarily the similarity discriminants, have limitations, particularly in handling the increasing volume and complexity of meteoroid orbit data. Aims. We aim to introduce a new, more statistically robust and generalizable method for estimating false positive detections in meteor shower identification, leveraging Kernel Density Estimation (KDE). Methods. Utilizing a dataset of 824 fireballs observed by the European Fireball Network, we apply a multivariate Gaussian kernel within KDE and z-score data normalization. Our method analyzes the parameter space of meteoroid orbits and geocentric impact characteristics, focusing on four different similarity discriminants: DSH, D', DH, and DN. Results. The KDE methodology consistently converges towards a true established shower-associated fireball rate within the EFN dataset of 18-25% for all criteria. This indicates that the approach provides a more statistically robust estimate of the shower-associated component. Conclusions. Our findings highlight the potential of KDE, combined with appropriate data normalization, in enhancing the accuracy and reliability of meteor shower analysis. This method addresses the existing challenges posed by traditional similarity discriminants and offers a versatile solution adaptable to varying datasets and parameters.

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arXiv2023

A new meteor shower from comet 46P/Wirtanen expected in December 2023

Context. Comet 46P/Wirtanen is a near-Earth object (NEO) for which no associated meteor shower has ever been reported. Aims. This study is aimed at improving our understanding of why there has been no observed shower activity for this NEO to date, as well as to consider whether any past activity could be uncovered from the post-prediction results. Methods. The usual dynamic tools for meteoroid streams were used to describe the behavior of the particles ejected by the comet. The resulting modeled meteoroid stream was thoroughly inspected for collisions between the stream and the Earth. Results. The results show a possible encounter forecast for December 12, 2023, between 8:00 and 12:30 UT. The slow entry velocity is typically known to cause dim meteors. The activity level of the shower is highly uncertain due to the absence of reported past showers. Conclusions. Overall, the most optimal observations on the forecasted day would be achieved from Eastern Australia, New Zealand, and Oceania. These observations will help constrain the size distribution of meteoroids from comet 46P/Wirtanen in the millimeter range.

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arXiv2023

A new meteor detection application robust to camera movements

This article presents a new tool for the automatic detection of meteors. Fast Meteor Detection Toolbox (FMDT) is able to detect meteor sightings by analyzing videos acquired by cameras onboard weather balloons or within airplane with stabilization. The challenge consists in designing a processing chain composed of simple algorithms, that are robust to the high fluctuation of the videos and that satisfy the constraints on power consumption (10 W) and real-time processing (25 frames per second).

cs.CV↗

arXiv2021

Impacts on the Moon: analysis methods and size distribution of impactors

We are preparing a telescope system to carry out a survey of detection and analysis of lunar impact flashes. In the framework of this project, here we present all necessary methods to automatically identify these luminous events, their lunar impact coordinates, the origin of the impacting meteoroids, as well as the estimation of their physical properties such as mass and size. We tested our methods against confirmed impact events and constructed the meteoroid size frequency distribution of impactors using literature data of the last 20 years. In addition, we present the first lunar impact event observed from the Observatoire de la Cote d'Azur that was detected during the testing phase of our project.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2020

Luminous efficiency based on FRIPON meteors

In meteor physics the luminous efficiency ${\tau}$ is used to convert the meteor's magnitude to the corresponding meteoroid's mass. However, lack of sufficiently accurate verification methods or adequate laboratory tests leave this parameter to be controversially discussed. In this work meteor/fireball data obtained by the Fireball Recovery and InterPlanetary Observation Network (FRIPON) was used to calculate the masses of the pre-atmospheric meteoroids which could in turn be compared to the meteor brightnesses to assess their luminous efficiencies. For that, deceleration-based formulas for the mass computation were used. We have found ${\tau}$-values, as well as the shape change coefficients, of 294 fireballs with determined masses in the range of $10^{-6}$ kg - $100$ kg. The derived ${\tau}$-values have a median of ${\tau}_{median}$ = 2.17 %. Most of them are on the order of 0.1 % - 10 %. We present how our values were obtained, compare them with data reported in the literature, and discuss several methods. A dependence of ${\tau}$ on the pre-atmospheric velocity of the meteor, $v_e$, is noticeable with a relation of ${\tau}=0.0023 \cdot v_e^{2.3}$. The higher luminous efficiency of fast meteors could be explained by the higher energy released. Fast meteoroids produce additional emission lines that radiate more efficiently in specific wavelengths due to the appearance of the so-called second component of higher temperature. Furthermore, a dependence of ${\tau}$ on the initial meteoroid mass, $M_e$, was found, with negative linear behaviour in log-log space: ${\tau}=0.48 \cdot M_e^{-0.47}$. This implies that the radiation of smaller meteoroids is more efficient.

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arXiv2020

Extra-Terrestrial Meteors

All planets and satellites of our solar system are subject to a continuous rain of material, ranging in size from specks of dust to objects the size of boulders. Upon impact, these objects deposit their kinetic energy into the incident surface or atmosphere and affect the environment of the target body in ways not yet well understood. Recent high-profile events - impact flashes on Jupiter and the encounter of comet C/Siding Spring with Mars - brought the study of "extraterrestrial meteors" and their effects into the fore. Here we review the history, status and future prospects of meteor studies on planets other than the Earth. Would bright meteors appear in the atmosphere of Mars and what are the long-term effects on the planet's atmosphere? How do high-speed impacts of particulate matter on the airless surfaces of Mercury and the Moon affect their environment and those of the countless other bodies like them? These are some of the questions we attempt to answer in this Chapter.

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arXiv2019

Temperatures of lunar impact flashes: mass and size distribution of small impactors hitting the Moon

Lunar impact flashes have been monitored over the last 20 years for determining the mass frequency distribution of near-Earth objects in the cm-dm size range. In this work, using telescopic observations in R and I band from the NELIOTA database, impact flash temperatures are derived. They are found to range between approximately 1,300 and 5,800 K. In addition, it is also found that temperature values appear to have a distribution significantly broader than a Gaussian function, therefore making it difficult to estimate the impact flash luminous energy by assigning an average temperature. By measuring the flash temperatures and assuming a black body emission, here we derive the energy of the impacts. We also study the potential link of each event to individual meteoroid streams, which allows us to assign an impact velocity and therefore constrain the projectile mass. Impactor masses are found to range between a few to hundreds of grams, while their sizes are just of few centimetres following a size frequency distribution similar to other studies.

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arXiv2017

Change in General Relativistic Precession Rates due to Lidov-Kozai oscillations in Solar System

Both General Relativistic (GR) precession and the Lidov-Kozai mechanism, separately, are known to play an important role in the orbital evolution of solar system bodies. Previous works have studied these two mechanisms independently in great detail. However, both these phenomena occurring at the same time in real solar system bodies have rarely been explored. In this work, we find a continuum connecting the GR precession dominant and Lidov-Kozai like mechanism dominant regimes, i.e. an intermediate regime where the competing effects of GR precession and Lidov-Kozai like oscillations co-exist simultaneously. We find some real examples in the solar system in this intermediate regime. Moreover we identify a rare example amongst them, comet 96P/Machholz 1, which shows significant changes in the rates of GR precession (an order of magnitude higher than Mercury's GR precession rate) due to sungrazing and sun colliding phases induced by Lidov-Kozai like oscillations. This comet's combination of orbital elements and initial conditions (at the present epoch) favour this measurable rapid change in GR precession (at some points peaking up to 60 times Mercury's GR precession rate) along with prograde-retrograde inclination flip (due to Lidov-Kozai like oscillations). Similar tests are performed for hundreds of bodies lying in the moderately low perihelion distance and moderately low semi-major axis phase space in the solar system, the present lowest perihelion distance asteroid 322P/SOHO 1, and further examples connected with 96P/Machholz 1 namely, the Marsden and Kracht families of sungrazing comets plus low perihelion meteoroid streams like Daytime Arietids (ARI) and Southern Delta Aquariids (SDA).

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2017

A confidence index for forecasting of meteor showers

The forecasting of meteor showers is currently very good at predicting the timing of meteor outbursts, but still needs further work regarding the level of a given shower. Moreover, uncertainties are rarely provided, leaving the end user (scientist, space agency or the public) with no way to evaluate how much the prediction is trustworthy. A confidence index for the forecasting of meteor showers is presented. It allows one to better understand how a specific forecasting has been performed. In particular, it underlines the role of our current knowledge of the parent body, its past orbit and past activity. The role of close encounters with planets for the time period considered is quantified as well. This confidence index is a first step towards better constrained forecasting of future meteor showers.

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arXiv2016

Three-body resonance in meteoroid streams

Mean-motion resonances play an important role in the evolution of various meteoroid streams. Previous works have studied the effects of two-body resonances in different comets and streams. These already established two-body resonances were mainly induced either by Jovian or Saturnian effects but not both at the same time. Some of these resonances have led to spectacular meteor outbursts and storms in the past. In this work, we find a new resonance mechanism involving three bodies -- i.e. meteoroid particle, Jupiter and Saturn, in the Perseid meteoroid stream. Long-term three-body resonances are not very common in real small bodies in our solar system although they can mathematically exist at many resonant sweet spots in an abstract sense in any dynamical system. This particular resonance combination in the Perseid stream is such that it is close to the ratio of 1:4:10 if the orbital periods of Perseid particle, Saturn and Jupiter are considered respectively. These resonant Perseid meteoroids stay resonant for typically about 2 kyr. Highly compact dust trails due to this unique resonance phenomenon are present in our simulations. Some past and future years are presented where three-body resonant meteoroids of different sizes (or subject to different radiation pressures) are computed to come near the Earth. This is the first theoretical example of an active and stable three-body resonance mechanism in the realm of meteoroid streams.

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arXiv2013

Survey of cometary CO2, CO, and particulate emissions using the Spitzer Space Telescope: Smog check for comets

We surveyed 23 comets using the Infrared Array Camera on the Spitzer Space Telescope in wide filters centered at 3.6 and 4.5 microns. Emission in the 3.6 micron filter arises from sunlight scattered by dust grains; these images generally have a coma near the nucleus and a tail in the antisolar direction due to dust grains swept back by solar radiation pressure. The 4.5 micron filter contains the same dust grains, as well as strong emission lines from CO2 and CO gas; these show distinct morphologies, in which cases we infer they are dominated by gas. Based on the ratio of 4.5 to 3.6 micron brightness, we classify the survey comets as CO2+CO "rich" and "poor." This classification is correlated with previous classifications by A'Hearn based on carbon-chain molecule abundance, in the sense that comets classified as "depleted" in carbon-chain molecules are also "poor" in CO2+CO. The gas emission in the IRAC 4.5 micron images is characterized by a smooth morphology, typically a fan in the sunward hemisphere with a radial profile that varies approximately as the inverse of projected distance from the nucleus, as would apply for constant production and free expansion. There are very significant radial and azimuthal enhancements in many of the comets, and these are often distinct between the gas and dust, indicating that ejection of solid material may be driven either by H2O or CO2. Notable features in the images include the following. There is a prominent loop of gas emission from 103P/Hartley 2, possible due to an outburst of CO2 before the Spitzer image. Prominent, double jets are present in the image of 88P/Howell. A prominent single jet is evident for 3 comets. Spirals are apparent in 29P and C/2006 W3; we measure a rotation rate of 21 hr for the latter comet. Arcs (possibly parts of a spiral) are apparent in the images of 10P/Tempel 2, and 2P/Encke.

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arXiv2011

The population of natural Earth satellites

We have for the first time calculated the population characteristics of the Earth's irregular natural satellites (NES) that are temporarily captured from the near-Earth-object (NEO) population. The steady-state NES size-frequency and residence-time distributions were determined under the dynamical influence of all the massive bodies in the solar system (but mainly the Sun, Earth, and Moon) for NEOs of negligible mass. To this end, we compute the NES capture probability from the NEO population as a function of the latter's heliocentric orbital elements and combine those results with the current best estimates for the NEO size-frequency and orbital distribution. At any given time there should be at least one NES of 1-meter diameter orbiting the Earth. The average temporarily-captured orbiter (TCO; an object that makes at least one revolution around the Earth in a co-rotating coordinate system) completes $(2.88\pm0.82)\rev$ around the Earth during a capture event that lasts $(286\pm18)\days$. We find a small preference for capture events starting in either January or July. Our results are consistent with the single known natural TCO, 2006 RH$_{120}$, a few-meter diameter object that was captured for about a year starting in June 2006. We estimate that about 0.1% of all meteors impacting the Earth were TCOs.

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arXiv2010

Explosion of Comet 17P/Holmes as revealed by the Spitzer Space Telescope

An explosion on comet 17P/Holmes occurred on 2007 Oct 23, projecting particulate debris of a wide range of sizes into the interplanetary medium. We observed the comet using the Spitzer spectrograph on 2007 Nov 10 and 2008 Feb 27, and the photometer, on 2008 Mar 13. The fresh ejecta have detailed mineralogical features from small crystalline silicate grains. The 2008 Feb 27 spectra, and the central core of the 2007 Nov 10 spectral map, reveal nearly featureless spectra, due to much larger grains that were ejected from the nucleus more slowly. We break the infrared image into three components (size, speed) that also explain the temporal evolution of the mm-wave flux. Optical images were obtained on multiple dates spanning 2007 Oct 27 to 2008 Mar 10 at the Holloway Comet Observatory and 1.5-m telescope at Palomar Observatory. The orientation of the leading edge of the ejecta shell and the ejecta blob, relative to the nucleus, do not change as the orientation of the Sun changes; instead, the configuration was imprinted by the orientation of the initial explosion. The kinetic energy of the ejecta >1e21 erg is greater than the gravitational binding energy of the nucleus. We model the explosion as being due to crystallization and release of volatiles from interior amorphous ice within a subsurface cavity; once the pressure in the cavity exceeded the surface strength, the material above the cavity was propelled from the comet. The size of the cavity and the tensile strength of the upper layer of the nucleus are constrained by the observed properties of the ejecta; tensile strengths on >10 m scale must be greater than 10 kPa. The appearance of the 2007 outburst is similar to that witnessed in 1892, but the 1892 explosion was less energetic by a factor of about 20.

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