Beyond Point Masses. II. Non-Keplerian Shape Effects are Detectable in Several TNO Binaries

Abstract

About 40 transneptunian binaries (TNBs) have fully determined orbits with about 10 others being solved except for breaking the mirror ambiguity. Despite decades of study almost all TNBs have only ever been analyzed with a model that assumes perfect Keplerian motion (e.g., two point masses). In reality, all TNB systems are non-Keplerian due to non-spherical shapes, possible presence of undetected system components, and/or solar perturbations. In this work, we focus on identifying candidates for detectable non-Keplerian motion based on sample of 45 well-characterized binaries. We use MultiMoon, a non-Keplerian Bayesian inference tool, to analyze published relative astrometry allowing for non-spherical shapes of each TNB system's primary. We first reproduce the results of previous Keplerian fitting efforts with MultiMoon, which serves as a comparison for the non-Keplerian fits and confirms that these fits are not biased by the assumption of a Keplerian orbit. We unambiguously detect non-Keplerian motion in 8 TNB systems across a range of primary radii, mutual orbit separations, and system masses. As a proof of concept for non-Keplerian fitting, we perform detailed fits for (66652) Borasisi-Pabu, possibly revealing a $J_2 \approx 0.44$, implying Borasisi (and/or Pabu) may be a contact binary or an unresolved compact binary. However, full confirmation of this result will require new observations. This work begins the next generation of TNB analyses that go beyond the point mass assumption to provide unique and valuable information on the physical properties of TNBs with implications for their formation and evolution.