arXiv subjects

Will Grundy

Publications and source records attributed to Will Grundy.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Beyond Point Masses. VI. Spin-Orbit Evolution of the Centaur Binary Typhon-Echidna

Only three binaries have been identified among the Centaur population. Because their perihelia are significantly closer than those of other trans-Neptunian binaries (TNBs), these systems allow a detailed look at tight binaries in the broader TNO population and provide critical insight into the disruption of binaries as they enter the Centaur population. Using recent and archival \textit{Hubble Space Telescope} (HST) observations, along with Keck data, we present a spin-orbit study of Typhon-Echidna. We find that the binary's mutual orbit is inconsistent with a Keplerian orbit; more detailed non-Keplerian fits show that the mutual orbit is rapidly precessing. We measure Typhon's dynamical oblateness, $J_2$, at $\sim10\sigma$ confidence and find that Typhon's rotation pole is $\gtrsim20^\circ$ misaligned with the binary's mutual orbit. Assuming Typhon has a triaxial shape, our results, combined with rotational light curves and thermal measurements from the literature, suggest ellipsoidal semi-axes of $a=93^{+8}_{-6}$ km, $b=84^{+6}_{-6}$ km, and $c=65^{+9}_{-8}$ km. We further investigate the observational consequences of the complex spin-orbit dynamics, including light curve alteration by axial precession of Typhon and substantial changes to the system's mutual event season. Based on the system's dynamically excited state, we suggest a recent encounter with a giant planet may have substantially altered the system, potentially consistent with a binary in an early stage of disruption. This hypothesis can be tested with resolved photometric observations of the system. Our investigation highlights how non-Keplerian dynamics enhances our understanding of TNB systems and motivates ongoing observations of TNBs with astrometry, photometry, and stellar occultations.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2026

Triaxial shapes and densities of G!kún||'hòmdímà, Haumea, and Varda from stellar occultations

The shapes and densities of mid-sized and large trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) are pivotal for understanding a variety of important aspects of planet formation. In this work, we present a Bayesian shape modeling method which combines constraints from rotational light curves and satellite orbits to construct three-dimensional shape models of TNOs. We use it to reanalyze three stellar occultations of the TNOs (229762) G!kún||'hòmdímà (2007 UK$_{126}$), (136108) Haumea, and (174567) Varda. By assuming that their satellites (or ring) orbit in their respective equatorial planes, we are able to derive unique shape models for both G!kún||'hòmdímà and Haumea. Our derived shape for G!kún||'hòmdímà is spheroidal with $a = b = 329^{+4}_{-3}$ km and $c = 294^{+11}_{-10}$ km, with a system density $ρ= 1007^{+50}_{-49}$ kg m$^{-3}$. For Haumea, we find $a = 1061^{+87}_{-71}$ km, $b = 844^{+5}_{-7}$ km, and $c = 514^{+18}_{-19}$ km, providing $ρ= 2050^{+157}_{-152}$ kg m$^{-3}$. For Varda, after updating its mutual orbit with its satellite Ilmarë, we find that currently published data are unable to fully constrain its three-dimensional shape. Intriguingly, Varda's elongated limb appears to point towards its satellite at the time of the occultation. With a $\sim$2\% chance of such an alignment happening randomly, this may be suggestive of a frozen-in tidal and/or rotational bulge. Our work emphasizes the importance of how external constraints can improve occultation analyses. With continued observations of rotational light curves, stellar occultations, and satellite orbits, these and other TNOs can have their shapes and densities further refined.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2026

Trans-Neptunian Binary Mutual Events in the 2020s and 2030s

Mutual events of trans-Neptunian binaries (TNBs) provide rare opportunities to measure the physical and orbital properties of small bodies in the outer solar system. However, successful observations of these events have been limited by uncertain predictions. Here, we present probabilistic predictions of TNB mutual events occurring through the 2030s, using high-precision non-Keplerian orbit solutions from the Beyond Point Masses project combined with a Bayesian framework that propagates orbital and size uncertainties. Our methods generate distributions of event timing, duration, depth, and probability of occurrence, enabling direct assessment of observability. We provide predictions for five systems with ongoing or imminent mutual event seasons, including (38628) Huya, (58534) Logos-Zoe, (148780) Altjira, (469705) Kágára and !Hãunu, and (524366) 2001 XR$_{254}$. Preparing for upcoming events with long-baseline light curve monitoring is vital, as events may be difficult to distinguish from a regular rotational light curve. Rapid dissemination of event detections will benefit the entire community, allowing predictions to be updated, ensuring that these rare mutual event opportunities can be fully exploited.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Beyond Point Masses. V. Weywot's Non-Keplerian Orbit

We present a detailed dynamical analysis of the Quaoar-Weywot system based on nearly 20 years of high-precision astrometric data, including new HST observations and stellar occultations. Our study reveals that Weywot's orbit deviates significantly from a purely Keplerian model, requiring the inclusion of Quaoar's non-spherical gravitational field and center-of-body-center-of-light (COB-COL) offsets in our orbit models. We place a robust upper limit on Weywot's orbital eccentricity ($e<0.02$), substantially lower than previous estimates, which has important implications for the strength of mean motion resonances (MMRs) acting on Quaoar's ring system. Under the assumption that Quaoar's rings lie in its equatorial plane, we detect Quaoar's dynamical oblateness, $J_2$, at $\sim$2$σ$ confidence. The low $J_2$ value found under that assumption implies Quaoar is differentiated, with a total bulk density of $1751\pm13$ (stat.) kg m$^{-3}$. Additionally, we detect significant COB-COL offsets likely arising from latitudinal albedo variations across Quaoar's surface. These offsets are necessary to achieve a statistically robust orbit fit and highlight the importance of accounting for surface heterogeneity when modeling the orbits of dwarf planet moons. These findings improve our understanding of Quaoar's interior and surface while providing key insights into the stability and confinement mechanisms of its rings.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Synchronous Rotation in the (120347) Salacia-Actaea System

We report on roughly 16 years of photometric monitoring of the transneptunian binary system (120347) Salacia-Actaea which provides significant evidence that Salacia and Actaea are tidally locked to the mutual orbital period in a fully synchronous configuration. The orbit of Actaea is updated, followed by a Lomb-Scargle periodogram analysis of the ground-based photometry which reveals a synodic period similar to the orbital period and a peak-to-peak lightcurve amplitude of δm = 0.0900 {\pm} 0.0036 mag (1σ uncertainty). Incorporating archival HST photometry that resolves each component, we argue that the periodicity in the unresolved data is driven by a longitudinally varying surface morphology on Salacia, and derive a sidereal rotation period that is within 1σ of the mutual orbital period. A rudimentary tidal evolution model is invoked that suggests synchronization occurred within 1.1 Gyr after Actaea was captured/formed.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

Beyond Point Masses. I. New Non-Keplerian Modeling Tools Applied to Trans-Neptunian Triple (47171) Lempo

Many details of the formation and evolution of the solar system are best inferred by understanding the orbital and physical properties of small bodies in the solar system. For example, small body binaries are particularly valuable for measuring masses. By extending the models of small body binaries beyond point masses, new information about the shape and spin orientation becomes available. This is particularly informative for Trans-Neptunian multiples (two or more components) where shapes and spin orientations are poorly understood. Going beyond point masses requires modeling tools that no longer assume fixed Keplerian orbits. To this end, we have developed a new n-quadrupole integrator SPINNY (SPIN+N-bodY) and pair it with a Bayesian parameter inference tool MultiMoon, both of which are publicly available. We describe these tools and how they can be used to learn more about solar system small body multiple systems. We then apply them to the unique Trans-Neptunian hierarchical triple system (47171) Lempo, finding a three-point-mass solution for the first time. This solution has two surprises: unequal densities of the inner components and a dynamical configuration apparently unstable on the age of the solar system.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

Beyond Point Masses. IV. TNO Altjira is Likely a Hierarchical Triple Discovered Through Non-Keplerian Motion

Dynamically studying Trans-Neptunian Object (TNO) binaries allows us to measure masses and orbits. Most of the known objects appear to have only two components, except (47171) Lempo which is the single known hierarchical triple system with three similar-mass components. Though hundreds of TNOs have been imaged with high-resolution telescopes, no other hierarchical triples (or trinaries) have been found among solar system small bodies, even though they are predicted in planetesimal formation models such as gravitational collapse after the streaming instability. By going beyond the point-mass assumption and modeling TNO orbits as non-Keplerian, we open a new window into the shapes and spins of the components, including the possible presence of unresolved ``inner'' binaries. Here we present evidence for a new hierarchical triple, (148780) Altjira (2001 UQ$_{18}$), based on non-Keplerian dynamical modeling of the two observed components. We incorporate two recent Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observations, leading to a 17 year observational baseline. We present a new open-source Bayesian Point Spread Function (PSF) fitting code called nPSF that provides precise relative astrometry and uncertainties for single images. Our non-Keplerian analysis measures a statistically-significant ($\sim$2.5-$σ$) non-spherical shape for Altjira. The measured $J_2$ is best explained as an unresolved inner binary and an example hierarchical triple model gives the best fit to the observed astrometry. Using an updated non-Keplerian ephemeris (which is significantly different from the Keplerian predictions), we show that the predicted mutual event season for Altjira has already begun with several excellent opportunities for observations through $\sim$2030.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

Beyond Point Masses. II. Non-Keplerian Shape Effects are Detectable in Several TNO Binaries

About 40 transneptunian binaries (TNBs) have fully determined orbits with about 10 others being solved except for breaking the mirror ambiguity. Despite decades of study almost all TNBs have only ever been analyzed with a model that assumes perfect Keplerian motion (e.g., two point masses). In reality, all TNB systems are non-Keplerian due to non-spherical shapes, possible presence of undetected system components, and/or solar perturbations. In this work, we focus on identifying candidates for detectable non-Keplerian motion based on sample of 45 well-characterized binaries. We use MultiMoon, a non-Keplerian Bayesian inference tool, to analyze published relative astrometry allowing for non-spherical shapes of each TNB system's primary. We first reproduce the results of previous Keplerian fitting efforts with MultiMoon, which serves as a comparison for the non-Keplerian fits and confirms that these fits are not biased by the assumption of a Keplerian orbit. We unambiguously detect non-Keplerian motion in 8 TNB systems across a range of primary radii, mutual orbit separations, and system masses. As a proof of concept for non-Keplerian fitting, we perform detailed fits for (66652) Borasisi-Pabu, possibly revealing a $J_2 \approx 0.44$, implying Borasisi (and/or Pabu) may be a contact binary or an unresolved compact binary. However, full confirmation of this result will require new observations. This work begins the next generation of TNB analyses that go beyond the point mass assumption to provide unique and valuable information on the physical properties of TNBs with implications for their formation and evolution.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

New Horizons Venetia Burney Student Dust Counter Observes Higher than Expected Fluxes Approaching 60 AU

The NASA New Horizons Venetia Burney Student Dust Counter (SDC) measures dust particle impacts along the spacecraft's flight path for grains with mass $\ge$ $10^{-12}$ g, mapping out their spatial density distribution. We present the latest SDC dust density, size distribution, and flux measurements through 55 au and compare them to numerical model predictions. Kuiper Belt Objects (KBOs) are thought to be the dominant source of interplanetary dust particles (IDP) in the outer solar system due to both collisions between KBOs, and their continual bombardment by interstellar dust particles (ISD). Continued measurements through 55 au show higher than model-predicted dust fluxes as New Horizons approaches the putative outer edge of the Kuiper Belt (KB). We discuss potential explanations for the growing deviation: radiation pressure stretches the dust distribution to further heliocentric distances than its parent body distribution; icy dust grains undergo photo-sputtering that rapidly increases their response to radiation pressure forces and pushes them further away from the sun; and the distribution of KBOs may extend much further than existing observations suggest. Ongoing SDC measurements at even larger heliocentric distances will continue to constrain the contributions of dust production in the KB. Continued SDC measurements remain crucial for understanding the Kuiper Belt and the interpretation of observations of dust disks around other stars.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

New Investigations of Dark Floored Pits in the Volatile Ice of Sputnik Planitia on Pluto

Sputnik Planitia, Pluto's gigantic ice glacier, hosts numerous scientific mysteries, including the presence of thousands of elongated pit structures. We examine various attributes of these pit structures in New Horizons data sets, revealing their length, aspect ratios, and orientation properties; we also study their interior reflectivities, colors, and compositions, and compare these attributes to some other relevant regions on Pluto. We then comment on origin mechanisms of the pits and also the fate of the missing volatiles represented by the pits on Sputnik Planitia.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

Lucy Mission to the Trojan Asteroids: Instrumentation and Encounter Concept of Operations

The Lucy Mission accomplishes its science during a series of five flyby encounters with seven Trojan asteroid targets. This mission architecture drives a concept of operations design that maximizes science return, provides redundancy in observations where possible, features autonomous fault protection and utilizes onboard target tracking near closest approach. These design considerations reduce risk during the relatively short time-critical periods when science data is collected. The payload suite consists of a color camera and infrared imaging spectrometer, a high-resolution panchromatic imager, and a thermal infrared spectrometer. The mission design allows for concurrent observations of all instruments. Additionally, two spacecraft subsystems will also contribute to the science investigations: the Terminal Tracking Cameras will obtain wide field-of-view imaging near closest approach to determine the shape of each of the Trojan targets and the telecommunication subsystem will carry out Doppler tracking of the spacecraft to determine the mass of each of the Trojan targets.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2021

Some New Results and Perspectives Regarding the Kuiper Belt Object Arrokoth's Remarkable, Bright Neck

One of the most striking and curious features of the small Kuiper Belt Object (KB), Arrokoth, explored by New Horizons, is the bright, annular neck it exhibits at the junction between its two lobes. Here we summarize past reported findings regarding the properties of this feature and report new findings regarding its dimensions, reflectivity and color, shape profile, and its lack of identifiable craters. We conclude by enumerating possible origin scenarios for this unusual feature. New results include a new measurement of the observed neck area of 8+/-1.5 km2, a total neck surface area of 32 km2, a 12.5:1 ratio of neck circumference to height, a normal reflectance histogram of the observed neck, and the fact that no significant (i.e., >2 sigma) color units were identified, meaning the neck's color is generally spatially uniform at the 1.5 km/pixel scale of the best color images. Although several origin hypotheses for the bright material in the neck are briefly discussed, none can be conclusively demonstrated to be the actual origin mechanism at this time; some future tests are identified.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

Pluto Follow On Missions: Background, Rationale, and New Mission Recommendations

The first exploration of Pluto was motivated by (i) the many intriguing aspects of this body, its atmosphere, and its giant impact binary-planet formation; as well as (ii) the scientific desire to initiate the reconnaissance of the newly-discovered population of dwarf planets in the Kuiper Belt. That exploration took place in the form of a single spacecraft flyby that yielded an impressive array of exciting results that have transformed our understanding of this world and its satellites, and which opened our eyes to the exciting nature of the dwarf planet population of the Kuiper Belt. From Pluto's five-object satellite system, to its hydrocarbon haze-laden atmosphere, to its variegated distribution of surface volatiles, to its wide array of geologic expressions that include extensive glaciation and suspected cryovolcanoes, plus the tantalizing possibility of an interior ocean, the Pluto system has proven to be as complex as larger terrestrial bodies like Mars, and it begs for future exploration. Owing to Pluto's high obliquity (and consequently, current-epoch southern hemisphere polar winter darkness) and the single spacecraft nature of the New Horizons flyby, only about 40% of Pluto and its binary satellite, Charon, could be mapped at high pixel scales (better than 10 km/pix). Additionally, due to their distances from New Horizons at closest approach, none of Pluto's small moons could be studied at high resolution during the flyby. Furthermore, studies of the time variability of atmospheric, geologic, and surface-atmosphere interactions cannot be practically made by additional flybys, and they cannot be made from Earth-based observations. We find that these limitations, combined with Pluto's many important, open scientific questions, strongly motivate a Pluto System follow on orbiter mission.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2020

The Science Case for Spacecraft Exploration of the Uranian Satellites

The five classical Uranian moons are possible ocean worlds that exhibit bizarre geologic landforms, hinting at recent surface-interior communication. However, Uranus' classical moons, as well as its ring moons and irregular satellites, remain poorly understood. We assert that a Flagship-class orbiter is needed to explore the Uranian satellites.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2019

The mass and density of the dwarf planet (225088) 2007 OR10

The satellite of (225088) 2007 OR10 was discovered on archival Hubble Space Telescope images and along with new observations with the WFC3 camera in late 2017 we have been able to determine the orbit. The orbit's notable eccentricity, e$\approx$0.3, may be a consequence of an intrinsically eccentric orbit and slow tidal evolution, but may also be caused by the Kozai mechanism. Dynamical considerations also suggest that the moon is small, D$_{eff}$ $<$ 100 km. Based on the newly determined system mass of 1.75x10$^{21}$ kg, 2007 OR10 is the fifth most massive dwarf planet after Eris, Pluto, Haumea and Makemake. The newly determined orbit has also been considered as an additional option in our radiometric analysis, provided that the moon orbits in the equatorial plane of the primary. Assuming a spherical shape for the primary this approach provides a size of 1230$\pm$50 km, with a slight dependence on the satellite orbit orientation and primary rotation rate chosen, and a bulk density of 1.75$\pm$0.07 g cm$^{-3}$ for the primary. A previous size estimate that assumed an equator-on configuration (1535$^{+75}_{-225}$ km) would provide a density of 0.92$^{+0.46}_{-0.14}$ g cm$^{-3}$, unexpectedly low for a 1000 km-sized dwarf planet.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2015

Observing Outer Planet Satellites (except Titan) with JWST: Science Justification and Observational Requirements

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will allow observations with a unique combination of spectral, spatial, and temporal resolution for the study of outer planet satellites within our Solar System. We highlight the infrared spectroscopy of icy moons and temporal changes on geologically active satellites as two particularly valuable avenues of scientific inquiry. While some care must be taken to avoid saturation issues, JWST has observation modes that should provide excellent infrared data for such studies.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2015

Physical Characterization of TNOs with JWST

Studies of the physical properties of Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) are a powerful probe into the processes of planetesimal formation and solar system evolution. JWST will provide unique new capabilities for such studies. Here we outline where the capabilities of JWST open new avenues of investigation, potential valuable observations and surveys, and conclude with a discussion of community actions that may serve to enhance the eventual science return of JWSTs TNO observations.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2012

OSS (Outer Solar System): A fundamental and planetary physics mission to Neptune, Triton and the Kuiper Belt

The present OSS mission continues a long and bright tradition by associating the communities of fundamental physics and planetary sciences in a single mission with ambitious goals in both domains. OSS is an M-class mission to explore the Neptune system almost half a century after flyby of the Voyager 2 spacecraft. Several discoveries were made by Voyager 2, including the Great Dark Spot (which has now disappeared) and Triton's geysers. Voyager 2 revealed the dynamics of Neptune's atmosphere and found four rings and evidence of ring arcs above Neptune. Benefiting from a greatly improved instrumentation, it will result in a striking advance in the study of the farthest planet of the Solar System. Furthermore, OSS will provide a unique opportunity to visit a selected Kuiper Belt object subsequent to the passage of the Neptunian system. It will consolidate the hypothesis of the origin of Triton as a KBO captured by Neptune, and improve our knowledge on the formation of the Solar system. The probe will embark instruments allowing precise tracking of the probe during cruise. It allows to perform the best controlled experiment for testing, in deep space, the General Relativity, on which is based all the models of Solar system formation. OSS is proposed as an international cooperation between ESA and NASA, giving the capability for ESA to launch an M-class mission towards the farthest planet of the Solar system, and to a Kuiper Belt object. The proposed mission profile would allow to deliver a 500 kg class spacecraft. The design of the probe is mainly constrained by the deep space gravity test in order to minimise the perturbation of the accelerometer measurement.

gr-qc↗