Does DESI 2024 Confirm $\Lambda$CDM?

Abstract

We demonstrate that a $\sim 2 \sigma$ discrepancy with the Planck-$\Lambda$CDM cosmology in DESI Luminous Red Galaxy (LRG) data in the redshift range $0.4 < z < 0.6$ with effective redshift $z_{\textrm{eff}} = 0.51$ translates into an unexpectedly large $\Omega_m$ value, $\Omega_m = 0.67^{+0.18}_{-0.17}$. We independently confirm that this anomaly drives the preference for $w_0 > -1$ in DESI data \textit{alone} confronted to the $w_0 w_a$CDM model. Given that LRG data at $z_{\textrm{eff}} = 0.51$ is at odds with Type Ia supernovae in overlapping redshifts, we expect that this anomaly will decrease in statistical significance with future DESI data releases leaving an increasing $\Omega_m$ trend with effective redshift at higher redshifts. We estimate the current significance of the latter in DESI data at $\sim 1.8 \sigma$ and comment on how it dovetails with independent observations. It is imperative to understand what makes DESI LRG data at $z_{\textrm{eff}} = 0.51$ an outlier when it comes to $\Omega_m$ determinations.