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Maria Giovanna Dainotti

Publications and source records attributed to Maria Giovanna Dainotti.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Parameterizations of the Hubble Constant from the Binned Type Ia Supernova Master Sample: Logarithmic versus Power-law Forms

Motivated by the Hubble tension and the increasing debate about the redshift-dependency in the inferred Hubble constant, we investigate its dependence within the flat $Λ$CDM framework using a 20-bin analysis of the Master Supernovae type Ia (SNe Ia) Sample, considering cases with and without very low-redshift data. The main quantity studied is $H_0(z)/H_0$, where $H_0$ is the Hubble constant today, and $H_0(z)$ is the binned data-driven estimate of the value of $H_0$ inferred from the SNe Ia data within redshift intervals at $z > 0$, such that $H_0(0) = H_0$. From the binned analyses, we obtain best-fitting values of $H_0$ and $Ω_{m0}$, and employ logarithmic and power-law parameterizations, which are statistically consistent within uncertainties over the redshift range considered. To assess their behavior at earlier epochs, we extrapolate both forms to the Cosmic Microwave Background radiation (CMB) era ($z\simeq1100$), Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN, $z\sim10^{9}$), and inflationary scales ($z\sim10^{20}$). The reconstructed Hubble constant remains nearly indistinguishable up to the CMB scale, diverges at the few-to-ten percent level around BBN, and differs more substantially when extrapolated to inflationary redshifts, though these two regimes lie beyond the direct observational constraints. A distinct asymptotic behavior emerges at very-high redshift: the logarithmic form exhibits a vanishing behaviour of $H_0$ at finite $z$, while the power-law form approaches zero asymptotically as $z \rightarrow \infty$. In future studies, independent high-redshift observations and extensions beyond $Λ$CDM, such as $f(R)$ modified gravity, could allow a comparative study of the two parameterizations beyond the SNe Ia regime and their high-$z$ physical implications.

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Running Hubble Constant with the Redshift as a Marker of Evolutionary Dark Energy

We discuss the interpretation of an observed running Hubble constant with the redshift, in terms of the possible underlying physical scenario. Assuming, like in the $Λ$CDM model, that the matter and dark energy components do not directly interact, we arrive at the conclusion that the physical content of the cosmological dynamics can always be represented with an evolutionary dark energy paradigm. We discuss both the case of the power-law running Hubble constant, and that of an optimized fitting model, both studied with the binned Pantheon Sample of the Type Ia Supernovae data. These two cases turn out to be associated with a phantom-like evolutionary dark energy.

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Creation of Viscous Dark Energy by the Hubble Flow: Comparison with SNe Ia Master Sample Binned Data

We study a family of cosmological models featuring dynamical dark energy (DE), based on the idea that the creation of its constituents arises from the gravitational field of the expanding universe, whose non-equilibrium physics is described by a non-zero bulk viscosity coefficient. We consider the complete scenario, in which both matter creation and bulk viscosity are present, together with its two limiting cases, in which only one of the two effects is retained. Once each model is constrained by requiring its present-day deceleration parameter $q_0$ to match specific values, the complete scenario introduces up to two additional free parameters with respect to the $Λ$CDM model, one of which is the equation of state parameter $w$ of the created dark energy. \textcolor{blue}{We consider two choices for $q_0$: the value predicted by the $Λ$CDM model, and one obtained from a background analysis of Fazzari et. al. (2025). To perform the analysis, we construct the effective running Hubble constant, i.e. a theoretical function corresponding to the ratio between the Hubble parameter of our models and the $Λ$CDM expansion rate. The theoretical predictions for the effective running Hubble constant of the three models are tested against the Master binned sample of Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia), through a Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure with up to four free parameters. The most important result emerging from this analysis is that, when using the cosmographic $q_0$, all three models exhibit a quintessence-to-phantom transition in the effective equation of state parameter of the dark energy; on the contrary, when using the $q_0$ coming from the $Λ$CDM limit, the transition cannot happen, and the effective equation of state parameter is entirely of phantom nature across the considered redshift range.

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QCD CP-violation scenario for a revised cosmological dynamics: analysis of the binned Pantheon Sample of Super Novae Ia

We investigate a modified cosmological dynamics in which the Universe is composed of baryonic matter and a complex (classical) scalar field. The phase component of this field is identified with the axion field, which accounts for the dark matter contribution, while its modulus follows a $λϕ^4$-like theory, associated with a dominant constant energy density and describing the dark energy component of the Universe. When the potential term of this complex scalar field is studied near its maximum, it naturally provides an interaction term between dark matter and dark energy. The cosmological model that emerges from this physical framework leads to a modified $Λ$CDM dynamics, in which the dark matter contribution is slightly and monotonically suppressed. We then construct the effective running Hubble constant associated with this revised cosmological scenario and we compare this diagnostic tool with the binned data of the Pantheon Sample of Type Ia Supernovae. As a result of the fitting procedure, we are able to provide a satisfactory interpretation of the data in terms of our theoretical conjecture that results statistically favored with respect to the $Λ$CDM model.

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Interpretation of the binned SNe Ia Master Sample data via a scalar quintessence component: phantom transition?

We study a modified cosmological scenario for the late Universe, involving an evolutionary dark energy model associated with the dynamics of a self-interacting scalar field in a potential-dominated regime. Through the analogy with a fluid energy-momentum tensor, we introduce a viscous contribution to the scalar dynamics, accounting for effective non-equilibrium behaviour of the self-interacting scalar cluster. The resulting picture is that of an intrinsic quintessence contribution which, due to the bulk viscosity, admits an effective equation of state parameter that can also take values below -1. Within this framework, we set up the diagnostic tool of the so-called "effective running Hubble constant", which allows us to trace possible deviations from a standard LambdaCDM model. We then compare this theoretical function with binned data from the Master Sample of Supernovae Ia, constructed assuming a LambdaCDM model in the MCMC procedure performed in each bin. We show that the self-interacting scalar field corresponding to the best fit satisfies a slow-rolling condition, since the kinetic energy remains small compared to the potential contribution throughout the redshift interval. The key finding is that, when limiting the model to specific regions of the parameter space and fitting it to the data, the transition only occurs at redshifts significantly lower than the redshift value identified by the DESI Collaboration. Furthermore, for the parameter values ensuring the best fit, no quintessence-to-phantom transition occurs (i.e., the effective equation of state parameter remains below -1 across the whole redshift domain). In other words, Supernovae data alone provide no indication of a change in the nature of the dark energy.

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Early Optical Follow-up of Gamma-Ray Bursts: The Critical Role of Robotic Telescopes

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are the most luminous electromagnetic explosions in the Universe, and offer unique laboratories for studying relativistic jets, compact-object formation, particle acceleration, and the high-redshift Universe. The early optical emission of GRBs, particularly within seconds to minutes after the burst, carries crucial information about the central engine, jet magnetization, bulk Lorentz factor, and circumburst environment. We present a comprehensive review of the early optical phenomenology of GRBs and the essential role played by ground-based robotic optical telescopes to observe the fleeting early-time phenomena through rapid, automated responses to real-time GRB alerts and high-cadence photometry. We examine the key early optical features of GRBs, including prompt optical emission coincident with the $γ$-ray phase, bright reverse shock optical flashes, the onset of external forward shock afterglow, and superimposed optical flares, plateaus, and discuss the diagnostic power of each in constraining jet physics. We discuss the physical mechanisms underlying these phenomena and their implications for GRB physics (e.g., estimating the initial Lorentz factor $Γ_0$, magnetization, and the density profile). Early optical observations have constrained the initial bulk Lorentz factor $Γ_0 \sim 100$--$1000$, weak-to-moderate ejecta magnetization for events with prominent reverse shocks, the circumburst density profile, and the geometry of the magnetic field in the ejecta through polarimetry. We also provide the technical capabilities and landmark contributions of major robotic facilities, and discuss future prospects in the era of SVOM, Einstein Probe, Rubin/LSST, ULTRASAT, TeV observatories, and multi-messenger alerts.

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Exploring Jet Structure and Dynamics in Short Gamma Ray Bursts: A Case Study on GRB 090510

Gamma-ray bursts observed in high-energies allow the investigation of the emission processes of these still puzzling events. In this study, we perform general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations to investigate GRB 090510, a peculiar short GRB detected by Fermi-LAT. Our primary goal is to model the energetics, jet structure, variability, and opening angle of the burst to understand its underlying physical conditions. We tested the 2D and 3D models and estimated the time scale of variability. The predicted energetics and the jet opening angle reconcile with the observed ones with 1$σ$ when considering that the jet opening angles also evolve with redshift. Furthermore, we extend our analysis by incorporating dynamical ejecta into selected models to study its impact on jet collimation at smaller distances. In addition, we investigated a suite of models exhibiting a broad range of observable GRB properties, thereby extending our understanding beyond this specific event.

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Probing Evolution of Long Gamma-Ray Burst Properties through Their Cosmic Formation History

The astrophysics of Long GRB (LGRB) progenitors as well as possible cosmological evolution in their properties still poses many open questions. Previous studies suggest that the LGRB rate density (LGRB-RD) follows the cosmic star formation rate density (SFRD) only at high-z and attribute this to the metallicity evolution of progenitor stars. For low z, opinions differ on whether the uptick in the LGRB RD is due to a distinct class of low-luminosity GRBs or perhaps even a different progenitor subclass. To investigate these questions, we utilize data from the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory and ground-based observatories (redshift). To test the hypothesis that the observations can be mapped (with/without evolution) to the well-established cosmic SFRD, we consider three cases: no evolution, beaming angle evolution, and a simple power-law evolution. The comparison shows that the 'no evolution' case can be ruled out. Our study highlights that the beaming angle evolution or the simple power law evolution are also not sufficient to obtain a good match between the LGRB-RD and SFRD. Rather, the inclusion of multiple evolving properties of LGRBs in combination appears to be required to match the two rate densities in their entirety.

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Probing evolution of Long GRB properties through their cosmic formation history aided by Machine Learning predicted redshifts

Gamma-ray Bursts (GRBs) are valuable probes of cosmic star formation reaching back into the epoch of reionization, and a large dataset with known redshifts ($z$) is an important ingredient for these studies. Usually, $z$ is measured using spectroscopy or photometry, but $\sim80\%$ of GRBs lack such data. Prompt and afterglow correlations can provide estimates in these cases, though they suffer from systematic uncertainties due to assumed cosmologies and due to detector threshold limits. We use a sample with $z$ estimated via machine learning models, based on prompt and afterglow parameters, without relying on cosmological assumptions. We then use an augmented sample of GRBs with measured and predicted redshifts, forming a larger dataset. We find that the predicted redshifts are a crucial step forward in understanding the evolution of GRB properties. We test three cases: no evolution, an evolution of the beaming factor, and an evolution of all terms captured by an evolution factor $(1+z)^δ$. We find that these cases can explain the density rate in the redshift range between 1-2, but neither of the cases can explain the derived rate densities at smaller and higher redshifts, which may point towards an evolution term different than a simple power law. Another possibility is that this mismatch is due to the non-homogeneity of the sample, e.g., a non-collapsar origin of some long GRB within the sample.

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Gamma-Ray Bursts as an Independent High-Redshift Probe of Dark Energy

Testing the $Λ$CDM model requires cosmological probes spanning the wide redshift interval between Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia, $z\lesssim2.9$) and the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB, $z\approx1100$). Gamma-Ray Bursts (GRBs), observed up to redshift $z=9.2$, offer the opportunity to explore this regime. Here, we investigate how many GRBs are needed to become a useful cosmological probe capable of independently testing deviations from $Λ$CDM suggested by the recent DESI BAO observations. We develop forecasts based on the two-dimensional X-ray and optical Dainotti relations, between the luminosity at the end of the plateau phase and its rest-frame duration. Using simulated GRB samples constructed from the observed population, we evaluate the constraining power of GRBs on cosmological parameters within the $w$CDM and $w_0w_a$CDM models, both independently and in combination with CMB observations. Our results show that GRB samples containing several tens to hundreds of well-characterized plateau can already approach the precision currently achieved by CMB measurements on the Dark Energy (DE) equation-of-state parameter $w$. Particularly, a sample of $\sim66$ optical GRBs can reach a precision $σ_w \approx 0.47$, comparable to that obtained from Planck within the $w$CDM framework. Such sample sizes are already attainable through Machine Learning techniques that double the number of GRBs using inferred redshifts. These forecasts indicate that future GRB observations, when combined with next-generation transient missions and improved statistical techniques, will provide an independent high-redshift probe of cosmic expansion and will play an important role in testing the robustness of potential Dynamical DE signals suggested by other cosmological datasets.

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Model-independent calibration of Gamma-Ray Bursts with neural networks

The $Λ$ Cold Dark Matter ($Λ$CDM) cosmological model has been highly successful in predicting cosmic structure and evolution, yet recent precision measurements have highlighted discrepancies, especially in the Hubble constant inferred from local and early-Universe data. Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) present a promising alternative for cosmological measurements, capable of reaching higher redshifts than traditional distance indicators. This work leverages GRBs to refine cosmological parameters independently of the $Λ$CDM framework. Using the Platinum compilation of long GRBs, we calibrate the Dainotti relations-empirical correlations among GRB luminosity properties-as standard candles through artificial neural networks (ANNs). We analyze both the 2D and 3D Dainotti calibration relations, leveraging an ANN-driven Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach to minimize scatter in the calibration parameters, thereby achieving a stable Hubble diagram. This ANN-based calibration approach offers advantages over Gaussian processes, avoiding issues such as kernel function dependence and overfitting. Our results emphasize the need for model-independent calibration approaches to address systematic challenges in GRB luminosity variability, ultimately extending the cosmic distance ladder in a robust way. By addressing redshift evolution and reducing systematic uncertainties, GRBs can serve as reliable high-redshift distance indicators, offering critical insights into current cosmological tensions.

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Measuring cosmic dipole with the GRB luminosity-time relation

We present a new analysis of cosmic dipole anisotropy using gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) as high-redshift standardizable candles. GRBs are ideal probes for testing the cosmological principle thanks to their high luminosity, wide redshift range, and nearly isotropic sky coverage. For the first time, we employ the luminosity-time (L-T) relation, known in the literature as the bidimensional X-ray Dainotti relation, corrected for redshift evolution, to standardize a sample of 176 long GRBs detected by \textit{Swift}. We test for dipolar modulations in the GRB Hubble diagram using both the Dipole Fit Method and a new approach introduced here, the Anisotropic Residual Analysis Method. Both methods yield consistent results: a dipole amplitude of $A_d \simeq 0.6 \pm 0.2$ pointing towards (RA, DEC) $\approx (134^\circ \pm 30^{\circ}, -36^\circ \pm 21^{\circ})$ (equatorial coordinates). As shown in the Appendix, this corresponds to a boost velocity of the observer with respect to the GRB rest-frame in the antipodal direction from the dipole direction. Extensive isotropy tests and 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations confirm that the detected signal cannot be explained by chance alignments or by the angular distribution of the GRB sample. We also show how, by incorporating a dipole term, residual correlations are eliminated, showing that the dipole model provides a better fit than standard isotropic $Λ$CDM.

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Redshift Classification of Optical Gamma-Ray Bursts using Supervised Learning

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are among the most luminous explosions in the Universe and serve as powerful probes of the early cosmos. However, the rapid fading of their afterglows and the scarcity of spectroscopic measurements make photometric classification crucial for timely high-redshift identification. We present an ensemble machine learning framework for redshift classification of GRBs based solely on their optical plateau and prompt emission properties. Our dataset comprises 171 long GRBs observed by the Swift UVOT and more than 450 ground-based telescopes. The analysis pipeline integrates robust statistical techniques, including M-estimator outlier rejection, multivariate imputation using Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations, and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator feature selection, followed by a SuperLearner ensemble combining parametric, semi-parametric, and non-parametric algorithms. The optimal model, trained on raw optical data with outlier removal at a redshift threshold of z equals 2.0, achieves a true positive rate of 74 percent and an area under the curve of 0.84, maintaining balanced generalization between training and test sets. At higher thresholds, such as z equals 3.0, the classifier sustains strong discriminative power with an area under the curve of 0.88. Validation on an independent GRB sample yields 97 percent overall accuracy, perfect specificity, and an ensemble area under the curve of 0.93. Compared to previous prompt- and X-ray-based classifiers, our optical framework offers enhanced sensitivity to high-redshift events, improved robustness against data incompleteness, and greater applicability to ground-based follow-up. We also publicly release a web application that enables real-time redshift classification, facilitating rapid identification of candidate high-redshift GRBs for cosmological studies.

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Two Dynamical Scenarios for Binned Master Sample Interpretation

We analyze two different scenarios for the late Universe dynamics, resulting into Hubble parameters deviating from the $Λ$CDM, mainly for the presence of an additional free parameter, which is the dark energy parameter. The first model consists of a pure evolutionary dark energy paradigm, as result of its creation by the gravitational field of the expanding Universe. The second model also considers an interaction of the evolutionary dark energy with the matter component, postulated via the conservation of the sum of their ideal energy-momentum tensors. These two models are then compared \textit{via} the diagnostic tool of the effective running Hubble constant, with the binned data of the so-called ``Master sample'' for the Type Ia Supernovae. The comparison procedures, based on a standard MCMC analysis, led to a clear preference of data for the dark energy - matter interaction model, which is associated to a phantom matter equation of state parameter (very close to $-1$) when, being left free by data (it has a flat posterior), it is fixed in order to reproduce the decreasing power-law behavior of the effective running Hubble constant, already discussed in literature.

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The CosmoVerse White Paper: Addressing observational tensions in cosmology with systematics and fundamental physics

The standard model of cosmology has provided a good phenomenological description of a wide range of observations both at astrophysical and cosmological scales for several decades. This concordance model is constructed by a universal cosmological constant and supported by a matter sector described by the standard model of particle physics and a cold dark matter contribution, as well as very early-time inflationary physics, and underpinned by gravitation through general relativity. There have always been open questions about the soundness of the foundations of the standard model. However, recent years have shown that there may also be questions from the observational sector with the emergence of differences between certain cosmological probes. In this White Paper, we identify the key objectives that need to be addressed over the coming decade together with the core science projects that aim to meet these challenges. These discordances primarily rest on the divergence in the measurement of core cosmological parameters with varying levels of statistical confidence. These possible statistical tensions may be partially accounted for by systematics in various measurements or cosmological probes but there is also a growing indication of potential new physics beyond the standard model. After reviewing the principal probes used in the measurement of cosmological parameters, as well as potential systematics, we discuss the most promising array of potential new physics that may be observable in upcoming surveys. We also discuss the growing set of novel data analysis approaches that go beyond traditional methods to test physical models. [Abridged]

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Does DESI 2024 Confirm $Λ$CDM?

We demonstrate that a $\sim 2 σ$ discrepancy with the Planck-$Λ$CDM cosmology in DESI Luminous Red Galaxy (LRG) data in the redshift range $0.4 < z < 0.6$ with effective redshift $z_{\textrm{eff}} = 0.51$ translates into an unexpectedly large $Ω_m$ value, $Ω_m = 0.67^{+0.18}_{-0.17}$. We independently confirm that this anomaly drives the preference for $w_0 > -1$ in DESI data \textit{alone} confronted to the $w_0 w_a$CDM model. Given that LRG data at $z_{\textrm{eff}} = 0.51$ is at odds with Type Ia supernovae in overlapping redshifts, we expect that this anomaly will decrease in statistical significance with future DESI data releases leaving an increasing $Ω_m$ trend with effective redshift at higher redshifts. We estimate the current significance of the latter in DESI data at $\sim 1.8 σ$ and comment on how it dovetails with independent observations. It is imperative to understand what makes DESI LRG data at $z_{\textrm{eff}} = 0.51$ an outlier when it comes to $Ω_m$ determinations.

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Decay of dark energy into dark matter in a metric $f(R)$ gravity: effective running Hubble constant

We examine a modified late-Universe dynamics where dark energy decays into dark matter, within the framework of metric $f(R)$-gravity in the Jordan frame. After a detailed analysis of the modified $Λ\text{CDM}$ model, we introduce a theoretical diagnostic tool to capture the emergence of an effective running Hubble constant as a function of redshift. We then compare this theoretical model with the 40-bin analysis of the Supernova Pantheon sample. This comparison allows us to determine the value of the additional free parameter that appears in our model, beyond those of the standard $Λ\text{CDM}$ model. Our modified late Universe dynamics provides a good-quality fit to the binned data, improving upon the previous phenomenological interpretation based on a power-law decay. However, unlike the power-law model, our approach cannot be extrapolated to the recombination redshift to match the Hubble constant measured by the Planck satellite. In fact, the dynamics resulting from the binned Pantheon sample analysis address only weakly the Hubble tension between the SH0ES and the Planck Collaboration values of the Hubble constant. Here we provide a convincing representation of the observed deviation of the cosmological dynamics from the $Λ$CDM-one, as it out-stands from the low redshift observed sources.

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Magnetic Burial in Millisecond Magnetars and Late GRB Afterglow Signatures

Millisecond magnetars, one of the potential candidates for the central engine of Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), can experience significant magnetic field enhancement shortly after their formation. In some cases, this evolution is further influenced by the accretion of stellar debris, which modifies the dipole magnetic field strength. During a hypercritical accretion phase that lasts seconds or longer after the progenitor explosion, a thin crust may form, submerging the magnetic field (the so-called magnetic burial scenario). Once hypercritical accretion ceases, the buried field can diffuse back through the crust, delaying the external dipole's reactivation. On the other hand, observations have shown that relativistic outflows ejected by these objects and decelerated by the circumburst environment cause a late and temporary emission known as afterglow. This work investigates how the submergence and subsequent reemergence of the magnetar magnetic field, on a few years timescales, affect the GRB afterglow dynamics. Specifically, we apply this phenomenological scenario to the late-time X-ray excess observed approximately three years post-burst in GW170817/GRB 170817A, exploring how the evolving magnetic field strength may contribute to this emission. Our modelling of GRB 170817A indicates that $\gtrsim90$ percent of the external dipole flux was initially buried, re-emerging on a timescale $τ_{B}=3-40$ yr and restoring a surface field $B\simeq(2-5)\times10^{15}\,$G; the late-time X-ray brightening is far better reproduced by this scenario than by models without burial.

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