Searcharxiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2407.08069

Herding Unmasked: Insights into Cryptocurrencies, Stocks and US ETFs

An Pham Ngoc Nguyen·Martin Crane·Thomas Conlon·Marija Bezbradica
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Herding behavior has become a familiar phenomenon to investors, with potential dangers of both undervaluing and overvaluing assets, while also threatening market stability. This study contributes to the literature on herding behavior by using a recent dataset, covering the most impactful events of recent years. To our knowledge, this is the first study examining herding behavior across three different types of investment vehicle and also the first study observing herding at a community (subset) level. Specifically, we first explore this phenomenon in each separate type of investment vehicle, namely stocks, US ETFs and cryptocurrencies, using the Cross-Sectional Absolute Deviation model. We find mostly similar herding patterns for stocks and US ETFs. Subsequently, the same experiment is implemented on a combination of all three investment vehicles. For a deeper investigation, we adopt graph-based techniques including the Minimum Spanning Tree and Louvain community detection to partition the combination into smaller subsets to detect herding behavior for each subset. We find that herding behavior exists at all times across all types of investment vehicle at a subset level, although perhaps not at the superset level, and that this herding behavior tends to stem from specific events that solely impact that subset of assets. Lastly, we explore herding by examining the financial contagion effects between these types of investment vehicle. Results show that US ETFs not only have a tendency to propagate similar trading behaviors in stocks and especially cryptocurrencies but also show self-reinforcing herding behavior, acting as drivers of their own trends.

Explore related subjects

q-fin.MFecon.GNq-fin.EC

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

An Pham Ngoc Nguyen, Martin Crane, Thomas Conlon, Marija Bezbradica. 2024-07-10. Herding Unmasked: Insights into Cryptocurrencies, Stocks and US ETFs. https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.08069

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Variance-Optimal Hedging in the Rough Hawkes--Heston Model

We study variance-optimal stock hedging and the convergence of approximate strategies in the rough Hawkes--Heston model. Starting from the model's affine conditional transform and the affine Volterra jump framework, we obtain semi-explicit hedges for European calls and a representation of the minimum quadratic error through the Galtchouk--Kunita--Watanabe projection. Our main approximation result keeps the original stock, variance driver, and information flow fixed while regularizing the kernel used to evaluate the hedge. To handle singular memory and common marked jumps, we construct the approximate holdings from histories available before trading and preserve the conditional transform's random modulus envelope. Riccati--Volterra stability and weighted truncation then yield convergence in the original stock's trading norm on compact Fourier intervals. For calls, a joint choice of kernel regularization and Fourier cutoff gives convergence of the initial capitals and strategies, uniform-in-time square-mean convergence of continuous-time gains, and convergence of the terminal mean-square error to the variance-optimal value. A numerical experiment with shifted fractional kernels illustrates the construction on common original-market paths.

q-fin.MF↗
arXiv2026

Numeraire Invariance of Entropy-Projected Martingale Measures

Let \(P\) be a fixed physical law and let \(Q\) be an equivalent martingale measure selected from the martingale-measure set associated with a chosen numeraire. A change of numeraire maps \(Q\) to \(T_LQ\), where \(d(T_LQ)=L\,dQ\) and \(L\) is the terminal likelihood ratio. The forward relative-entropy projection minimizing \(D_{\mathrm{KL}}(P\Vert Q)\) commutes with this transform because its objective changes only by the constant \(-E_P\log L\). The minimal entropy martingale measure (MEMM) orientation \(D_{\mathrm{KL}}(Q\Vert P)\) does not have this property, and a trinomial counterexample shows that independently recomputed MEMMs need not be likelihood compatible. We make two economic consequences explicit. First, the two entropy orientations are precisely the \(Q\)-dependent terms in the classical convex-dual objectives for logarithmic and exponential utility, respectively. Second, likelihood compatibility is equivalent to equality of the pricing functionals obtained in the two numeraires. Hence the forward selectors value every integrable claim consistently across numeraires, whereas the two MEMMs in the counterexample assign different prices to a nonreplicable digital claim. We also prove a finite-state class-level characterization: uniform invariance over the elementary one-period likelihood-ratio families forces a smooth convex \(f\)-divergence to be logarithmic, up to scaling and affine equivalence. Finally, in finite-state markets, the forward projection exists under the usual strictly positive feasible-point condition; its density \(dP/dQ^*\) is attainable log-optimal terminal wealth, and the minimum forward entropy equals maximal expected log growth.

q-fin.MF↗
arXiv2026

The Delta of a Variance Swap

We define the variance swap delta as the sensitivity of the price of variance to a change in underlying price. We use Carr-Madan spanning formulas to analyze this sensitivity when the implied volatility smile curve may depend on the underlying price. We show that the variance swap total delta is zero for the class of smile curves that are pure functions of (log) moneyness, which goes against the empirical observation that variance is up when the market is down. We propose a simple modification of the smile to correct this issue.

q-fin.MF↗