The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge: Predicting the Number of Fatalities in Armed Conflict, with Uncertainty

Håvard Hegre; Paola Vesco; Michael Colaresi; Jonas Vestby; Alexa Timlick; Noorain Syed Kazmi; Friederike Becker; Marco Binetti; Tobias Bodentien; Tobias Bohne; Patrick T. Brandt; Thomas Chadefaux; Simon Drauz; Christoph Dworschak; Vito D'Orazio; Cornelius Fritz; Hannah Frank; Kristian Skrede Gleditsch; Sonja Häffner; Martin Hofer; Finn L. Klebe; Luca Macis; Alexandra Malaga; Marius Mehrl; Nils W. Metternich; Daniel Mittermaier; David Muchlinski; Hannes Mueller; Christian Oswald; Paola Pisano; David Randahl; Christopher Rauh; Lotta Rüter; Thomas Schincariol; Benjamin Seimon; Elena Siletti; Marco Tagliapietra; Chandler Thornhill; Johan Vegelius; Julian Walterskirchen

arXiv · 2407.11045

The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge: Predicting the Number of Fatalities in Armed Conflict, with Uncertainty

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Abstract

This draft article outlines a prediction challenge where the target is to forecast the number of fatalities in armed conflicts, in the form of the UCDP `best' estimates, aggregated to the VIEWS units of analysis. It presents the format of the contributions, the evaluation metric, and the procedures, and a brief summary of the contributions. The article serves a function analogous to a pre-analysis plan: a statement of the forecasting models made publicly available before the true future prediction window commences. More information on the challenge, and all data referred to in this document, can be found at https://viewsforecasting.org/research/prediction-challenge-2023.

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Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco, Michael Colaresi, Jonas Vestby, Alexa Timlick, Noorain Syed Kazmi, Friederike Becker, Marco Binetti, Tobias Bodentien, Tobias Bohne, Patrick T. Brandt, Thomas Chadefaux, Simon Drauz, Christoph Dworschak, Vito D'Orazio, Cornelius Fritz, Hannah Frank, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, Sonja Häffner, Martin Hofer, Finn L. Klebe, Luca Macis, Alexandra Malaga, Marius Mehrl, Nils W. Metternich, Daniel Mittermaier, David Muchlinski, Hannes Mueller, Christian Oswald, Paola Pisano, David Randahl, Christopher Rauh, Lotta Rüter, Thomas Schincariol, Benjamin Seimon, Elena Siletti, Marco Tagliapietra, Chandler Thornhill, Johan Vegelius, Julian Walterskirchen. 2024-07-08. The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge: Predicting the Number of Fatalities in Armed Conflict, with Uncertainty. https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.11045

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