Predicting citation impact of research papers using GPT and other text embeddings

Abstract

The impact of research papers, typically measured in terms of citation counts, depends on several factors, including the reputation of the authors, journals, and institutions, in addition to the quality of the scientific work. In this paper, we present an approach that combines natural language processing and machine learning to predict the impact of papers in a specific journal. Our focus is on the text, which should correlate with impact and the topics covered in the research. We employed a dataset of over 40,000 articles from ACS Applied Materials and Interfaces spanning from 2012 to 2022. The data was processed using various text embedding techniques and classified with supervised machine learning algorithms. Papers were categorized into the top 20% most cited within the journal, using both yearly and cumulative citation counts as metrics. Our analysis reveals that the method employing generative pre-trained transformers (GPT) was the most efficient for embedding, while the random forest algorithm exhibited the best predictive power among the machine learning algorithms. An optimized accuracy of 80\% in predicting whether a paper was among the top 20% most cited was achieved for the cumulative citation count when abstracts were processed. This accuracy is noteworthy, considering that author, institution, and early citation pattern information were not taken into account. The accuracy increased only slightly when the full texts of the papers were processed. Also significant is the finding that a simpler embedding technique, term frequency-inverse document frequency (TFIDF), yielded performance close to that of GPT. Since TFIDF captures the topics of the paper we infer that, apart from considering author and institution biases, citation counts for the considered journal may be predicted by identifying topics and "reading" the abstract of a paper.