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arXiv · 2409.02353

Conditional logistic individual-level models of spatial infectious disease dynamics

Tahmina Akter·Rob Deardon
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Abstract

Here, we introduce a novel framework for modelling the spatiotemporal dynamics of disease spread known as conditional logistic individual-level models (CL-ILM's). This framework alleviates much of the computational burden associated with traditional spatiotemporal individual-level models for epidemics, and facilitates the use of standard software for fitting logistic models when analysing spatiotemporal disease patterns. The models can be fitted in either a frequentist or Bayesian framework. Here, we apply the new spatial CL-ILM to both simulated and semi-real data from the UK 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic.

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Tahmina Akter, Rob Deardon. 2024-09-04. Conditional logistic individual-level models of spatial infectious disease dynamics. https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.02353

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