NuFit-6.0: Updated global analysis of three-flavor neutrino oscillations

Abstract

We present an updated global analysis of neutrino oscillation data as of September 2024. The parameters $\theta_{12}$, $\theta_{13}$, $\Delta m^2_{21}$, and $|\Delta m^2_{3\ell}|$ ($\ell = 1,2$) are well-determined with relative precision at $3\sigma$ of about 13\%, 8\%, 15\%, and 6\%, respectively. The third mixing angle $\theta_{23}$ still suffers from the octant ambiguity, with no clear indication of whether it is larger or smaller than $45^\circ$. The determination of the leptonic CP phase $\delta_{CP}$ depends on the neutrino mass ordering: for normal ordering the global fit is consistent with CP conservation within $1\sigma$, whereas for inverted ordering CP-violating values of $\delta_{CP}$ around $270^\circ$ are favored against CP conservation at more than $3.6\sigma$. While the present data has in principle $2.5$--$3\sigma$ sensitivity to the neutrino mass ordering, there are different tendencies in the global data that reduce the discrimination power: T2K and NOvA appearance data individually favor normal ordering, but they are more consistent with each other for inverted ordering. Conversely, the joint determination of $|\Delta m^2_{3\ell}|$ from global disappearance data prefers normal ordering. Altogether, the global fit including long-baseline, reactor and IceCube atmospheric data results into an almost equally good fit for both orderings. Only when the $\chi^2$ table for atmospheric neutrino data from Super-Kamiokande is added to our $\chi^2$, the global fit prefers normal ordering with $\Delta\chi^2 = 6.1$. We provide also updated ranges and correlations for the effective parameters sensitive to the absolute neutrino mass from $\beta$-decay, neutrinoless double-beta decay, and cosmology.