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arXiv · 2411.00520

Calibrated quantile prediction for Growth-at-Risk

Pietro Bogani·Matteo Fontana·Luca Neri·Simone Vantini
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Abstract

Accurate computation of robust estimates for extremal quantiles of empirical distributions is an essential task for a wide range of applicative fields, including economic policymaking and the financial industry. Such estimates are particularly critical in calculating risk measures, such as Growth-at-Risk (GaR). % and Value-at-Risk (VaR). This work proposes a conformal framework to estimate calibrated quantiles, and presents an extensive simulation study and a real-world analysis of GaR to examine its benefits with respect to the state of the art. Our findings show that CP methods consistently improve the calibration and robustness of quantile estimates at all levels. The calibration gains are appreciated especially at extremal quantiles, which are critical for risk assessment and where traditional methods tend to fall short. In addition, we introduce a novel property that guarantees coverage under the exchangeability assumption, providing a valuable tool for managing risks by quantifying and controlling the likelihood of future extreme observations.

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Pietro Bogani, Matteo Fontana, Luca Neri, Simone Vantini. 2024-11-01. Calibrated quantile prediction for Growth-at-Risk. https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.00520

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