arXiv subjects

Matteo Fontana

Publications and source records attributed to Matteo Fontana.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Local observers in stationary axisymmetric dust spacetimes

In this work, we construct a locally inertial reference system adapted to a geodesic observer in stationary, axisymmetric dust solutions of the Einstein equations employed as effective models of a portion of a galactic disc. To ensure a consistent spatial orientation among different local observers, we also introduce the radially locked reference system, in which one spatial axis is aligned with the radial direction defined by null geodesics passing through the galactic center. Within this framework, we analyze how the dust configuration is described by such observers by computing the frequency shift of photons exchanged between pairs of dust geodesics. Building on this construction, we outline a procedure to reconstruct spectroscopic and astrometric relative velocities with respect to locally inertial observers, providing a coherent foundation for the study of galactic kinematics in a fully general relativistic context.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

A Unified Comparative Study with Generalized Conformity Scores for Multi-Output Conformal Regression

Conformal prediction provides a powerful framework for constructing distribution-free prediction regions with finite-sample coverage guarantees. While extensively studied in univariate settings, its extension to multi-output problems presents additional challenges, including complex output dependencies and high computational costs, and remains relatively underexplored. In this work, we present a unified comparative study of nine conformal methods with different multivariate base models for constructing multivariate prediction regions within the same framework. This study highlights their key properties while also exploring the connections between them. Additionally, we introduce two novel classes of conformity scores for multi-output regression that generalize their univariate counterparts. These scores ensure asymptotic conditional coverage while maintaining exact finite-sample marginal coverage. One class is compatible with any generative model, offering broad applicability, while the other is computationally efficient, leveraging the properties of invertible generative models. Finally, we conduct a comprehensive empirical evaluation across 13 tabular datasets, comparing all the multi-output conformal methods explored in this work. To ensure a fair and consistent comparison, all methods are implemented within a unified code base.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Asymptotically Conically Minkowskian spacetimes from self-gravitating dust

In this work we investigate some non-Newtonian effects in exact solutions of the Einstein equations, which describe stationary and axisymmetric configurations of self-gravitating dust. A distinctive feature of these solutions is the potential presence of conical singularities along the rotation axis, manifesting as angular deficits. While such singularities can be removed by imposing suitable boundary conditions along the axis, asymptotically far away from it the geometry becomes locally flat, in the sense that the Riemann tensor vanishes, but globally, instead of reducing to Minkowski space, it takes the form of a cone. We refer to these spacetimes as Asymptotically Conically Minkowskian (ACM). We show that such conical structure can originate some interesting effects as seen by asymptotic local observers. These include modifications to the gravitational lensing and the misinterpretation of the vacuum state of a scalar field as a distribution of scalar particles.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

Calibrated quantile prediction for Growth-at-Risk

Accurate computation of robust estimates for extremal quantiles of empirical distributions is an essential task for a wide range of applicative fields, including economic policymaking and the financial industry. Such estimates are particularly critical in calculating risk measures, such as Growth-at-Risk (GaR). % and Value-at-Risk (VaR). This work proposes a conformal framework to estimate calibrated quantiles, and presents an extensive simulation study and a real-world analysis of GaR to examine its benefits with respect to the state of the art. Our findings show that CP methods consistently improve the calibration and robustness of quantile estimates at all levels. The calibration gains are appreciated especially at extremal quantiles, which are critical for risk assessment and where traditional methods tend to fall short. In addition, we introduce a novel property that guarantees coverage under the exchangeability assumption, providing a valuable tool for managing risks by quantifying and controlling the likelihood of future extreme observations.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Application of interpretable machine learning for cross-diagnostic inference on the ST40 spherical tokamak

Machine learning models are exceptionally effective in capturing complex non-linear relationships of high-dimensional datasets and making accurate predictions. However, their intrinsic ``black-box'' nature makes it difficult to interpret them or guarantee ``safe behavior'' when deployed in high-risk applications such as feedback control, healthcare and finance. This drawback acts as a significant barrier to their wider application across many scientific and industrial domains where the interpretability of the model predictions is as important as accuracy. Leveraging the latest developments in interpretable machine learning, we develop a method to parameterise ``black-box'' models, effectively transforming them into ``grey-box'' models. We apply this approach to plasma diagnostics by creating a parameterised synthetic Soft X-Ray imaging $-$ Thomson Scattering diagnostic, which predicts high temporal resolution electron temperature and density profiles from the measured soft X-ray emission. The ``grey-box'' model predictions are benchmarked against the trained ``black-box'' models as well as a diverse range of plasma conditions. Our model-agnostic approach can be applied to various machine learning architectures, enabling direct comparisons of model interpretations.

physics.plasm-ph↗

arXiv2024

JANET: Joint Adaptive predictioN-region Estimation for Time-series

Conformal prediction provides machine learning models with prediction sets that offer theoretical guarantees, but the underlying assumption of exchangeability limits its applicability to time series data. Furthermore, existing approaches struggle to handle multi-step ahead prediction tasks, where uncertainty estimates across multiple future time points are crucial. We propose JANET (Joint Adaptive predictioN-region Estimation for Time-series), a novel framework for constructing conformal prediction regions that are valid for both univariate and multivariate time series. JANET generalises the inductive conformal framework and efficiently produces joint prediction regions with controlled K-familywise error rates, enabling flexible adaptation to specific application needs. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates JANET's superior performance in multi-step prediction tasks across diverse time series datasets, highlighting its potential for reliable and interpretable uncertainty quantification in sequential data.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Conformal Prediction Sets for Populations of Graphs

The analysis of data such as graphs has been gaining increasing attention in the past years. This is justified by the numerous applications in which they appear. Several methods are present to predict graphs, but much fewer to quantify the uncertainty of the prediction. The present work proposes an uncertainty quantification methodology for graphs, based on conformal prediction. The method works both for graphs with the same set of nodes (labelled graphs) and graphs with no clear correspondence between the set of nodes across the observed graphs (unlabelled graphs). The unlabelled case is dealt with the creation of prediction sets embedded in a quotient space. The proposed method does not rely on distributional assumptions, it achieves finite-sample validity, and it identifies interpretable prediction sets. To explore the features of this novel forecasting technique, we perform two simulation studies to show the methodology in both the labelled and the unlabelled case. We showcase the applicability of the method in analysing the performance of different teams during the FIFA 2018 football world championship via their player passing networks.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Towards Safer Robot-Assisted Surgery: A Markerless Augmented Reality Framework

Robot-assisted surgery is rapidly developing in the medical field, and the integration of augmented reality shows the potential of improving the surgeons' operation performance by providing more visual information. In this paper, we proposed a markerless augmented reality framework to enhance safety by avoiding intra-operative bleeding which is a high risk caused by the collision between the surgical instruments and the blood vessel. Advanced stereo reconstruction and segmentation networks are compared to find out the best combination to reconstruct the intra-operative blood vessel in the 3D space for the registration of the pre-operative model, and the minimum distance detection between the instruments and the blood vessel is implemented. A robot-assisted lymphadenectomy is simulated on the da Vinci Research Kit in a dry lab, and ten human subjects performed this operation to explore the usability of the proposed framework. The result shows that the augmented reality framework can help the users to avoid the dangerous collision between the instruments and the blood vessel while not introducing an extra load. It provides a flexible framework that integrates augmented reality into the medical robot platform to enhance safety during the operation.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2023

Stress-energy tensor correlations across regular black holes horizons

Hawking radiation can be regarded as a spontaneous and continuous creation of virtual particle-antiparticle pairs outside the event horizon of a black hole where strong tidal forces prevent the annihilation: the particle escapes to infinity contributing to the Hawking flux, while its corresponding antiparticle partner enters the event horizon and ultimately reaches the singularity. The aim of this paper is to investigate the energy density correlations between the Hawking particles and their partners across the event horizon of two models of non-singular black holes by calculating the two-point correlation function of the density operator of a massless scalar field. This analysis is motivated by the fact that in acoustic black holes particle-partner correlations are signalled by the presence of a peak in the equal time density-density correlator. Performing the calculation in a Schwarzschild black hole it was shown in [1] that the peak does not appear, mainly because of the singularity. It is then interesting to consider what happens when the singularity is not present. In the Hayward and Simpson-Visser non-singular black holes we show that the density-density correlator remains finite when the partner particle approaches the hypersurface that replaces the singularity, opening the possibility that partner-particle correlations can propagate towards other regions of spacetime instead of being lost in a singularity.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2023

An Evaluation of Researchers' Migration Patterns in Europe using Digital Trace Data

The comprehension of the mechanisms behind the mobility of skilled workers is of paramount importance for policy making. The lacking nature of official measurements motivates the use of digital trace data extracted from ORCID public records. We use such data to investigate European regions, studied at NUTS2 level, over the time horizon of 2009 to 2020. We present a novel perspective where regions roles are dictated by the overall activity of the research community, contradicting the common brain drain interpretation of the phenomenon. We find that a high mobility is usually correlated with strong university prestige, high magnitude of investments and an overall good schooling level in a region.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2022

Semi-supervised Bladder Tissue Classification in Multi-Domain Endoscopic Images

Objective: Accurate visual classification of bladder tissue during Trans-Urethral Resection of Bladder Tumor (TURBT) procedures is essential to improve early cancer diagnosis and treatment. During TURBT interventions, White Light Imaging (WLI) and Narrow Band Imaging (NBI) techniques are used for lesion detection. Each imaging technique provides diverse visual information that allows clinicians to identify and classify cancerous lesions. Computer vision methods that use both imaging techniques could improve endoscopic diagnosis. We address the challenge of tissue classification when annotations are available only in one domain, in our case WLI, and the endoscopic images correspond to an unpaired dataset, i.e. there is no exact equivalent for every image in both NBI and WLI domains. Method: We propose a semi-surprised Generative Adversarial Network (GAN)-based method composed of three main components: a teacher network trained on the labeled WLI data; a cycle-consistency GAN to perform unpaired image-to-image translation, and a multi-input student network. To ensure the quality of the synthetic images generated by the proposed GAN we perform a detailed quantitative, and qualitative analysis with the help of specialists. Conclusion: The overall average classification accuracy, precision, and recall obtained with the proposed method for tissue classification are 0.90, 0.88, and 0.89 respectively, while the same metrics obtained in the unlabeled domain (NBI) are 0.92, 0.64, and 0.94 respectively. The quality of the generated images is reliable enough to deceive specialists. Significance: This study shows the potential of using semi-supervised GAN-based bladder tissue classification when annotations are limited in multi-domain data. The dataset is available at https://zenodo.org/record/7741476#.ZBQUK7TMJ6k

eess.IV↗

arXiv2022

Bayesian Functional Emulation of CO2 Emissions on Future Climate Change Scenarios

We propose a statistical emulator for a climate-economy deterministic integrated assessment model ensemble, based on a functional regression framework. Inference on the unknown parameters is carried out through a mixed effects hierarchical model using a fully Bayesian framework with a prior distribution on the vector of all parameters. We also suggest an autoregressive parameterization of the covariance matrix of the error, with matching marginal prior. In this way, we allow for a functional framework for the discretized output of the simulators that allows their time continuous evaluation.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Challenges and Opportunities of Computational Social Science for Official Statistics

The vast amount of data produced everyday (so-called 'digital traces') and available nowadays represent a gold mine for the social sciences, especially in a computational context, that allows to fully extract their informational and knowledge value. In the latest years, statistical offices have made efforts to profit from harnessing the potential offered by these new sources of data, with promising results. But how difficult is this integration process? What are the challenges that statistical offices would likely face to profit from new data sources and analytical methods? This chapter will start by setting the scene of the current official statistics system, with a focus on its fundamental principles and dimensions relevant to the use of non-traditional data. It will then present some experiments and proofs of concept in the context of data innovation for official statistics, followed by a discussion on prospective challenges related to sustainable data access, new technical and methodological approaches and effective use of new sources of data.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Conformal Prediction Bands for Two-Dimensional Functional Time Series

Time evolving surfaces can be modeled as two-dimensional Functional time series, exploiting the tools of Functional data analysis. Leveraging this approach, a forecasting framework for such complex data is developed. The main focus revolves around Conformal Prediction, a versatile nonparametric paradigm used to quantify uncertainty in prediction problems. Building upon recent variations of Conformal Prediction for Functional time series, a probabilistic forecasting scheme for two-dimensional functional time series is presented, while providing an extension of Functional Autoregressive Processes of order one to this setting. Estimation techniques for the latter process are introduced and their performance are compared in terms of the resulting prediction regions. Finally, the proposed forecasting procedure and the uncertainty quantification technique are applied to a real dataset, collecting daily observations of Sea Level Anomalies of the Black Sea

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

conformalInference.multi and conformalInference.fd: Twin Packages for Conformal Prediction

Building on top of a regression model, Conformal Prediction methods produce distribution free prediction sets, requiring only i.i.d. data. While R packages implementing such methods for the univariate response framework have been developed, this is not the case with multivariate and functional responses. conformalInference.multi and conformalInference.fd address this void, by extending classical and more advanced conformal prediction methods like full conformal, split conformal, jackknife+ and multi split conformal to deal with the multivariate and functional case. The extreme flexibility of conformal prediction, fully embraced by the structure of the package, which does not require any specific regression model, enables users to pass in any regression function as input while using basic regression models as reference. Finally, the issue of visualisation is addressed by providing embedded plotting functions to visualize prediction regions.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Distribution-Free Prediction Bands for Multivariate Functional Time Series: an Application to the Italian Gas Market

Uncertainty quantification in forecasting represents a topic of great importance in energy trading, as understanding the status of the energy market would enable traders to directly evaluate the impact of their own offers/bids. To this end, we propose a scalable procedure that outputs closed-form simultaneous prediction bands for multivariate functional response variables in a time series setting, which is able to guarantee performance bounds in terms of unconditional coverage and asymptotic exactness, both under some conditions. After evaluating its performance on synthetic data, the method is used to build multivariate prediction bands for daily demand and offer curves in the Italian gas market.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Conformal Prediction Bands for Multivariate Functional Data

Motivated by the pressing request of methods able to create prediction sets in a general regression framework for a multivariate functional response and pushed by new methodological advancements in non-parametric prediction for functional data, we propose a set of conformal predictors that produce finite-sample either valid or exact multivariate simultaneous prediction bands under the mild assumption of exchangeable regression pairs. The fact that the prediction bands can be built around any regression estimator and that can be easily found in closed form yields a very widely usable method, which is fairly straightforward to implement. In addition, we first introduce and then describe a specific conformal predictor that guarantees an asymptotic result in terms of efficiency and inducing prediction bands able to modulate their width based on the local behavior and magnitude of the functional data. The method is investigated and analyzed through a simulation study and a real-world application in the field of urban mobility.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Mobility and Economic Impact of COVID-19 Restrictions in Italy using Mobile Network Operator Data

This work presents the analysis of the impact of restrictions on mobility in Italy, with a focus on the period from 6 November 2020 to 31 January 2021, when a three-tier system based on different levels of risk was adopted and applied at regional level to contrast the second wave of COVID-19. The impact is first evaluated on mobility using Mobile Network Operator anonymised and aggregate data shared in the framework of a Business-to-Government initiative with the European Commission. Mobility data, alongside additional information about electricity consuption, are then used to assess the impacts on an economic level of the three-tier system in different areas of the country.

econ.GN↗