Large role of anthropogenic climate change in driving smoke exposure across the western United States from 1992 to 2020

Abstract

Wildfire activity has increased dramatically in the western United States (US) over the last three decades, having a significant impact on air quality and human health. However, quantifying the drivers of trends in wildfires and subsequent smoke exposure is challenging, as both natural variability and anthropogenic climate change play important roles. Here we devise an approach involving observed meteorology and vegetation and a range of models to determine the relative roles of anthropogenic climate change and natural variability in driving burned area across the western US. We also examine the influence of anthropogenic climate change on smoke exposure. We estimate that anthropogenic climate change accounts for 33-82% of observed total burned area, depending on the ecoregion, yielding 65% of total fire emissions on average across the western US from 1992 to 2020. In all ecoregions except Mediterranean California, anthropogenic climate change contributes to a greater percentage of burned area in lightning-caused wildfires than in human-caused wildfires. On average, anthropogenic climate change contributes 49% to smoke PM2.5 concentrations in the western US from 1997 to 2020, and explains 58% of the increasing trend in smoke PM2.5 from 2010 to 2020. We further find that populations in northern California, western Oregon, Washington, and parts of Idaho have experienced the greatest smoke exposure attributable to anthropogenic climate change in recent years. Our work highlights the significant role of anthropogenic climate change in degrading air quality in the western US and identifies those regions most vulnerable to wildfire smoke and thus adverse health impacts.