Probing the origins. I. Generalised Additive Model inference of birth radii for Milky Way stars in the solar vicinity

Abstract

We employ a Generalised Additive Model (GAM) to address the limitations inherent in radial metallicity gradients predicted by chemical evolution models, thereby facilitating the estimation of birth radii for the thin disc stars in our sample based on their ages and chemical composition. We then juxtapose the birth radius predictions derived from the GAM with the calculated guiding radii, among other dynamic parameters. Metal-rich stars, formed in the inner regions of the Milky Way, seem to be predominantly churned outward. Their metal-poor counterparts, formed in the outer thin disc, exhibit the opposite behaviour. The proportion of blurred/undisturbed stars generally increases with decreasing metallicity when compared to their churned counterparts. Approximately $3/4$ of the sample has been affected by (inward or outward) churning, while the remaining $\sim 1/4$ has either been influenced by blurring or remained undisturbed. These percentages vary considerably across different metallicity-stratified groups. Also, a large age gap is identified between churned and blurred/undisturbed sub-samples within each HC-based group, being the outward-churned stars systematically the oldest, inward-churned stars the youngest, and blurred/undisturbed stars in intermediate ages. We also detect significant differences in angular momenta in the $z$ component, for stars that have either churned inward or outward, when compared to their blurred/undisturbed counterparts. Additionally, we observe the potential effects of the pericentric passage of the Sagittarius dwarf galaxy in our most metal-poor subset of stars, formed in the outer disc. Finally, we estimate that the Sun's most probable birth radius is $7.08 \pm 0.24$ kpc, with a 3$\sigma$ range spanning from 6.46 to 7.81 kpc, in agreement with previous studies.