Unveiling the Power of Uncertainty: A Journey into Bayesian Neural Networks for Stellar dating

Abstract

Context: Astronomy and astrophysics demand rigorous handling of uncertainties to ensure the credibility of outcomes. The growing integration of artificial intelligence offers a novel avenue to address this necessity. This convergence presents an opportunity to create advanced models capable of quantifying diverse sources of uncertainty and automating complex data relationship exploration. What: We introduce a hierarchical Bayesian architecture whose probabilistic relationships are modeled by neural networks, designed to forecast stellar attributes such as mass, radius, and age (our main target). This architecture handles both observational uncertainties stemming from measurements and epistemic uncertainties inherent in the predictive model itself. As a result, our system generates distributions that encapsulate the potential range of values for our predictions, providing a comprehensive understanding of their variability and robustness. Methods: Our focus is on dating main sequence stars using a technique known as Chemical Clocks, which serves as both our primary astronomical challenge and a model prototype. In this work, we use hierarchical architectures to account for correlations between stellar parameters and optimize information extraction from our dataset. We also employ Bayesian neural networks for their versatility and flexibility in capturing complex data relationships. Results: By integrating our machine learning algorithm into a Bayesian framework, we have successfully propagated errors consistently and managed uncertainty treatment effectively, resulting in predictions characterized by broader uncertainty margins. This approach facilitates more conservative estimates in stellar dating. Our architecture achieves age predictions with a mean absolute error of less than 1 Ga for the stars in the test dataset.