ODE and PDE models for COVID-19, with reinfection and vaccination process for Cameroon and Germany

Abstract

The goal of this work is to develop and analyze a reaction-diffusion model for the transmission dynamics of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) that accounts for reinfection and vaccination, as well as to compare it to the ODE model. After developing a time-dependent ODE model, we calculate the control reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_c$ and demonstrate the global stability of the COVID-19 free equilibrium for $\mathcal{R}_c<1$. We also show that when $\mathcal{R}_c>1$, the free equilibrium of COVID-19 becomes unstable and co-exists with at least one endemic equilibrium point. We then used data from Germany and Cameroon to calibrate our model and estimate some of its characteristics. We find $\mathcal{R}_c\approx 1.13$ for Germany and $\mathcal R_c \approx 1.2554$ for Cameroon, indicating that the disease persists in both populations. Following that, we modify the prior model into a reaction-diffusion PDE model to account for spatial mobility. We show that the solutions to the final initial value boundary problem (IVBP) exist and are nonnegative and unique. We also show that the disease-free equilibrium is stable locally, and globally when $\mathcal{R}_c<1$. In contrast, when $\mathcal{R}_c>1$, the DFE is unstable and coexists with at least one endemic equilibrium point. We ran multiple numerical simulations to validate our theoretical predictions. We then compare the ODE and the PDE models.