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arXiv · 2505.00231

Local Quasi-Exponential Growth Models: Kernel Differential Equation Regression and Mouse Tumor Growth Data

Chunlei Ge·W. John Braun
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Abstract

Local polynomial regression faces several challenges when dealing with sparse data. The difficulty in capturing local features of the underlying function can lead to a possible misrepresentation of the true relationship. Furthermore, with limited data points in local neighborhoods, the variance of estimators can increase significantly. Local polynomial regression also requires a substantial amount of data to produce good models, making it less efficient for sparse datasets. This paper employs a differential equation-constrained regression approach, introduced by \citet{ding2014estimation}, for local quasi-exponential growth models. By incorporating first-order differential equations, this method extends the sparse design capacity of local polynomial regression while reducing bias and variance. We discuss the asymptotic biases and variances of kernel estimators using first-degree Taylor polynomials. Model comparisons are conducted using mouse tumor growth data, along with simulation studies that include tumor growth with different sparse designs, and simulated quasi-exponential growth with varying levels of noise and growth rates.

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Chunlei Ge, W. John Braun. 2025-05-01. Local Quasi-Exponential Growth Models: Kernel Differential Equation Regression and Mouse Tumor Growth Data. https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.00231

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