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arXiv · 2505.08873

Threshold Dynamics and Integrated Control of Cholera Transmission with Sanitation and Vaccination

Abdallah Alsammani·Gassan A. M. O. Farah·Mohammed A. Y. Mohammed·Mehmet Yavuz
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Abstract

Cholera transmission is sustained by interacting human and environmental pathways, making integrated control essential in settings with inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene infrastructure. We develop and analyze a Susceptible--Infected--Recovered--Water (SIWR) model with Monod-type environmental transmission and three interventions: human sanitation, environmental sanitation, and vaccination. The control reproduction number decomposes as $\mathcal{R}_0=\mathcal{R}_0^{(h)}+\mathcal{R}_0^{(e)}$, separating direct and environmental transmission and yielding closed-form elasticity measures of pathway-specific contributions. We further quantify interactions between sanitation measures through an explicit Bliss independence synergy index. We establish local and global stability of the disease-free equilibrium and prove that the model undergoes a forward transcritical bifurcation at $\mathcal{R}_0=1$, excluding backward bifurcation. Global sensitivity analysis identifies direct transmission, the half-saturation constant, pathogen shedding, and human sanitation as major determinants of epidemic burden. Numerical simulations demonstrate that coordinated sanitation interventions can produce synergistic reductions in epidemic burden, providing a quantitative framework for evaluating integrated cholera control strategies.

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Abdallah Alsammani, Gassan A. M. O. Farah, Mohammed A. Y. Mohammed, Mehmet Yavuz. 2025-05-13. Threshold Dynamics and Integrated Control of Cholera Transmission with Sanitation and Vaccination. https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.08873

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