SearcharxivSearch

arXiv · 2505.12879

Spline Dimensional Decomposition with Interpolation-based Optimal Knot Selection for Stochastic Dynamic Analysis

Abstract

Forward uncertainty quantification in dynamical systems is challenging due to non-smooth or locally oscillating nonlinear behaviors. Spline dimensional decomposition (SDD) addresses such nonlinearity by partitioning input coordinates via knot placement, but its accuracy is highly sensitive to internal knot locations. Optimizing knots using sequential quadratic programming is effective, yet computationally expensive. We propose a computationally efficient, interpolation-based method for optimal knot selection in SDD. The method includes: (1) interpolating input-output profiles, (2) defining subinterval-based reference regions, and (3) selecting knots at maximum gradient points within each region. The resulting knot vector is then applied to SDD for accurate approximation of non-smooth and oscillatory responses. A modal analysis of a lower control arm shows that SDD with the proposed knots yields higher accuracy than SDD with uniformly or randomly spaced knots and a Gaussian process model. In this example, the proposed SDD achieves the lowest relative variance error (2.89%) for the first natural frequency distribution, compared to uniformly spaced knots (12.310%), randomly spaced knots (15.274%), and Gaussian process (5.319%). All surrogates are constructed using the same 401 simulation datasets, and errors are evaluated against a 2000-sample Monte Carlo simulation. Scalability and applicability are demonstrated through stochastic and reliability analyses of one- and three-dimensional benchmark functions, and a ten-dimensional lower control arm model. Results confirm that second-moment statistics and reliability estimates can be accurately obtained with only a few hundred function evaluations or finite element simulations.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

Yeonsu Kim, Junhan Lee, Bingran Wang, John T. Hwang, Dongjin Lee. 2025-05-19. Spline Dimensional Decomposition with Interpolation-based Optimal Knot Selection for Stochastic Dynamic Analysis. https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.12879

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

A Hilbert-Valued Functional Decomposition Framework for Explaining Time-Dependent Outputs

Feature-based explanations quantify features' influence on model predictions, but are primarily designed for scalar outputs. In many applications, however, outputs are functional or multivariate, such as time-dependent trajectories in demand forecasting. Consequently, existing approaches typically explain each output location independently, ignoring dependencies across the output components. We address this limitation by developing a unified framework for feature-based explanations of time-dependent outputs. Specifically, we generalize functional decomposition to Hilbert-valued prediction functions and extend an existing feature-based explanation framework to this setting. Our framework introduces kernel-based output representations that enable time-dependency-aware explanations at multiple levels of temporal granularity, including time-specific, time-resolved, and time-aggregated, while providing a unified view in which existing methods arise as special cases. We validate our framework on synthetic and real-world data, including intraday financial market volatility prediction and energy demand forecasting.

stat.ML

Risk-Averse Decision Making with Multi-Level Reliability Guarantees

Many applications in engineering, including wireless broadcasting, require designs that provide performance certificates at different target outage levels. This paper studies the problem of maximizing the weighted average of such certificates in the presence of uncertainty about the true system state. The problem is shown to be equivalent to an optimization over nested prediction sets, connecting to the literature on conformal prediction and extending prior art on single-level risk-averse decision making. Furthermore, we derive a dual formulation that decouples optimization across input values. Numerical experiments on a diversity-based wireless transmission system illustrate the cost of enforcing multi-level certificates with a single shared policy and trace the Pareto trade-off between multiple reliability levels.

stat.ML

A distribution-free certification framework for trustworthy crash-severity prediction

Crash-severity models inform screening, dispatch and site prioritization, yet are deployed without a finite-sample statement of what one prediction means. Off-the-shelf guarantees fail here, because the features that make crash severity distinctive defeat them: the KABCO outcome is ordinal, the recorded label is a field assessment agreeing with medical severity about half the time, erring in a structured way, and deployment crosses jurisdictions and years calibration never saw. We develop a certification layer that wraps any severity model unmodified, with distribution-free guarantees using this structure: contiguous ordinal sets that read as "B or worse"; per-class validity for any pre-declared partition, with an oracle efficiency characterization; transfer of coverage to unobserved true severity through a declared reporting band, with a worst-case sharpness result; a one-sided certificate under deployment shift; and severity-weighted risk control. The guarantees compose with an attributable slack budget. The same analysis bounds what certification can achieve. A certified set's informativeness is governed by a functional of the true law that no base model can evade and that cannot be lower-bounded distribution-free; given a declared misreporting channel identified from record-linkage data, a nonvacuous lower bound on that floor becomes computable. On 5.2 million Texas records across seven base models spanning four decades, the layer attaches identical validity and certifies, on the vulnerable road users, a model-independent floor on set width that no base model beats, separating it from a remainder that stays bounded but distribution-free unidentifiable. The framework is released as an open-source package with theorem-level tests.

stat.ML