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arXiv · 2506.06267

A causal framework for evaluating the total effect of strategies aiming to expand screening and to improve outcomes

Joy Zora Nakato·Janice Litunya·Brian Beesiga·Jane Kabami·James Ayieko·Moses R. Kamya·Gabriel Chamie·Laura B. Balzer
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Abstract

For many health conditions, there are highly efficacious treatment and prevention products. Maximizing their impact requires strategies that improve the reach of health screening in order to establish who could benefit. For example, HIV prevention strategies aim to expand risk screening and to improve uptake of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among those experiencing risk. Often, these strategies induce changes at the group-level (e.g., health clinics or communities) and are evaluated through cluster randomized trials. This scenario creates a complex, multilevel-mediation-missing data problem for the following reasons. First, the strategy is delivered at the cluster-level, while health screening and outcomes are at the individual-level. Second, the strategy improves health outcomes directly and indirectly through improved health screening. Third, everyone has an underlying status, which is only observed among those screened. To formally define the total effect in such settings, we use Counterfactual Strata Effects: causal estimands where the outcome is only relevant for a group whose membership is subject to missingness and/ or impacted by the exposure of interest. To identify and estimate the corresponding statistical estimand, we propose a novel extension of Two-Stage targeted minimum loss-based estimation (TMLE). Simulations demonstrate the practical performance of our approach as well as the limitations of existing approaches.

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Joy Zora Nakato, Janice Litunya, Brian Beesiga, Jane Kabami, James Ayieko, Moses R. Kamya, Gabriel Chamie, Laura B. Balzer. 2025-06-06. A causal framework for evaluating the total effect of strategies aiming to expand screening and to improve outcomes. https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.06267

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