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arXiv · 2506.21253

Suspense and Surprise in European Football

Raphael Flepp·Tim Pawlowski·Travis Richardson
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Abstract

A key criterion for evaluating sports competitions is their attractiveness to consumers. In this paper, we propose using match-level suspense and surprise, which capture the entertainment utility generated by competitive balance and outcome uncertainty for sports spectators, to assess attractiveness. Through simulations, we derive a benchmark range for suspense and surprise based on an otherwise balanced match with home advantage, before analyzing more than 25,000 matches from Europe's top five football leagues played between 2010/11 and 2023/24. Our findings reveal that mean match suspense is often lower than the benchmark range, particularly for top teams, while mean match surprise most often aligns with the benchmark. Moreover, we identify nuanced trends over time and highlight notable differences across leagues and clubs. These insights enhance our understanding of how the attractiveness of matches arises from competitive balance and carry important policy implications.

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Raphael Flepp, Tim Pawlowski, Travis Richardson. 2025-06-26. Suspense and Surprise in European Football. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2026.07.017

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