arXiv subjects

Tim Pawlowski

Publications and source records attributed to Tim Pawlowski.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Emotional driving: Reference-dependent emotions and risky driving behavior after sporting events

Using average vehicle speed data in 10-minute increments at the Traffic Message Channel (TMC) location level, along with precise crash timing and location information, we analyze driving behavior around five Florida stadiums before and after NFL and NBA regular season games from 2015 to 2019. We find no evidence of emotional driving following NBA games, but strong and consistent effects following NFL games, concentrated in predicted-close games that end in disappointing home-team losses -- combining high pre-game suspense with negative outcome valence. These games are associated with significant increases in average vehicle speed within 3 km of stadiums during the first post-game hour, dissipating with increasing time and distance from the stadium. Average vehicle speed increases by up to 3 mph relative to predicted-close games that ended in a win -- an effect several times larger than the typical game day versus non-game day speed differential. Overall, our results highlight how the combination of sustained suspense and negative outcome valence in close sporting contests can spill over into risky post-game driving behavior, underscoring the behavioral and public safety implications of affective cues in large-scale sporting events.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2026

Trimming of extreme votes and favoritism: Evidence from the field

Despite a large body of theoretical literature on voting mechanisms, there is no documented evidence from real-world panel evaluations about the effect of trimming the extreme votes on sincere voting. We provide the first such evidence by comparing subjective evaluations of experts from different countries in competitive settings with and without a trimming mechanism. In these evaluations, some of the evaluated subjects are experts' compatriots. Using data on 29,383 subjective evaluations, we find that experts assign significantly higher scores to their compatriots in panels without trimming. However, in panels with trimming, this favoritism is generally insignificant.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Racial bias, colorism, and overcorrection

This paper examines whether increased awareness can affect racial bias and colorism. We exploit a natural experiment arising from the widespread publicity of Price and Wolfers (2010), which served as an external shock, intensifying scrutiny of racial bias in men's basketball officiating. We investigate refereeing decisions in a similar setting, the Women's National Basketball Association (WNBA), which is known as a progressive institution with a longstanding commitment to diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) policy. We apply state-of-the-art artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques to systematically predict race and objectively measure skin tone. Our empirical strategy exploits the quasi-random assignment of referees to games, combined with high-dimensional fixed effects, to estimate the relationship between the racial and skin tone compositions of referees and players, as well as foul-calling behavior. Our results show no significant racial bias before the intense media coverage. However, afterward, we find evidence of overcorrection: a player earns fewer fouls when facing more referees from the opposite race and skin tone. Even though this overcorrection seems to wear off over time, we highlight the need to consider baseline levels of bias before applying any prescription with direct relevance to policymakers and organizations, given the recent discourse on DEI.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Suspense and Surprise in European Football

A key criterion for evaluating sports competitions is their attractiveness to consumers. In this paper, we propose using match-level suspense and surprise, which capture the entertainment utility generated by competitive balance and outcome uncertainty for sports spectators, to assess attractiveness. Through simulations, we derive a benchmark range for suspense and surprise based on an otherwise balanced match with home advantage, before analyzing more than 25,000 matches from Europe's top five football leagues played between 2010/11 and 2023/24. Our findings reveal that mean match suspense is often lower than the benchmark range, particularly for top teams, while mean match surprise most often aligns with the benchmark. Moreover, we identify nuanced trends over time and highlight notable differences across leagues and clubs. These insights enhance our understanding of how the attractiveness of matches arises from competitive balance and carry important policy implications.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Varying reference-point salience

The salience of reference points may theoretically influence the loss aversion mechanism in effort provision. However, we still lack a direct test from real competitive settings that uses exogenous variation to measure the effect of salience. We exploit a natural experiment where highly professional and incentivized individuals perform in real competitive settings with exogenous variation of reference-point salience. While a relevant reference point is salient in some cases, it is obscured in others, which, under reasonable assumptions, may affect individuals' expectations. This enables us to examine the effect of reference-point salience on the loss aversion mechanism in effort provision. Our regression discontinuity analyses reveal that individuals with positive expectations outperform those with negative expectations, but only when the reference point is salient.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

Domestic Competitive Balance and International Success: The Case of The Football Industry

This paper examines the interdependence of international success and competitive balance of domestic sports competitions. More specifically, we apply the notion of the Herfindahl-Hirschman index to examine the effect of international rewards on distortion of competitive balance in domestic competitions and derive conditions under which the level of domestic competitive balance raises or falls. Our results yield interesting policy implications for the regulation of prize schemes in international competitions.

econ.TH↗