Quantitative and Predictive Folding Models from Limited Single-Molecule Data Using Simulation-Based Inference

Abstract

The study of biomolecular folding has been greatly advanced by single-molecule force spectroscopy (SMFS), which enables the observation of the dynamics of individual molecules. However, extracting quantitative models of fundamental properties such as folding landscapes from SMFS data is very challenging due to instrumental noise, linker artifacts, and the inherent stochasticity of the process, often requiring extensive datasets and complex calibration. Here, we introduce a framework based on simulation-based inference (SBI) that overcomes these limitations by integrating physics-based modeling with deep learning. We first apply this framework to analyze constant-force measurements of a DNA hairpin. From a single experimental trajectory of only two seconds, we successfully reconstruct the hairpin's free energy landscape and folding dynamics, obtaining results in close agreement with established deconvolution methods that require 10-100 times more data. Furthermore, we demonstrate the generality of our approach by applying it to a riboswitch aptamer featuring multiple states and tertiary contacts, resolving the profile of a landscape featuring four metastable states from a single trajectory. The Bayesian nature of this approach robustly quantifies uncertainties for all inferred parameters, including diffusion coefficients and linker stiffness, without needing independent measurements of instrument properties. The inferred models are predictive, generating simulated trajectories that quantitatively reproduce experimental thermodynamics and kinetics. The ability to derive statistically robust models from minimal datasets is crucial for investigating complex biomolecular systems where extensive data collection is impractical, paving the way for novel applications of SMFS.