From Imperfect Signals to Trustworthy Structure: Confidence-Aware Inference from Heterogeneous and Reliability-Varying Utility Data

Abstract

Accurate distribution grid topology is essential for reliable modern grid operations. However, real-world utility data originates from multiple sources with varying characteristics and levels of quality. In this work, developed in collaboration with Oncor Electric Delivery, we propose a scalable framework that reconstructs a trustworthy grid topology by systematically integrating heterogeneous data. We observe that distribution topology is fundamentally governed by two complementary dimensions: the spatial layout of physical infrastructure (e.g., GIS and asset metadata) and the dynamic behavior of the system in the signal domain (e.g., voltage time series). When jointly leveraged, these dimensions support a complete and physically coherent reconstruction of network connectivity. To address the challenge of uneven data quality without compromising observability, we introduce a confidence-aware inference mechanism that preserves structurally informative yet imperfect inputs, while quantifying the reliability of each inferred connection for operator interpretation. This soft handling of uncertainty is tightly coupled with hard enforcement of physical feasibility: we embed operational constraints, such as transformer capacity limits and radial topology requirements, directly into the learning process. Together, these components ensure that inference is both uncertainty-aware and structurally valid, enabling rapid convergence to actionable, trustworthy topologies under real-world deployment conditions. The proposed framework is validated using data from over 8000 meters across 3 feeders in Oncor's service territory, demonstrating over 95% accuracy in topology reconstruction and substantial improvements in confidence calibration and computational efficiency relative to baseline methods.