arXiv subjects

Muhao Guo

Publications and source records attributed to Muhao Guo.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Enabling Scalable Topology Inference in Distribution Systems via Constrained Multi-Source Inference

Accurate distribution system topology is essential for outage localization, voltage analytics, and operation of distribution grids, yet maintaining reliable connectivity records remains challenging in practice due to heterogeneous and imperfect utility data. Existing topology identification methods often rely primarily on electrical similarity or spatial records alone, which become unreliable in dense feeders and under inconsistent metadata conditions. This paper formulates distribution topology identification as a constrained inference problem that refines a utility-provided base topology using heterogeneous evidence while enforcing spatial feasibility and physical operational constraints. Instead of reconstructing connectivity from scratch, the proposed framework detects inconsistent assignments, performs localized reconnection within constrained neighborhoods to ensure scalability, and iteratively enforces physical feasibility to produce operationally consistent topology estimates. In addition, a falsification-driven reliability metric evaluates how strongly each inferred connection is supported relative to alternative feasible assignments, enabling utilities to prioritize verification efforts while preserving system-wide observability. The framework is validated using operational data from three feeders comprising more than $8{,}000$ AMI meters in collaboration with a large U.S. utility. Results demonstrate over $95\%$ topology reconstruction accuracy while significantly reducing computational effort compared with global inference approaches. The study further shows that correlation-based methods alone produce ambiguous assignments in dense urban feeders, whereas combining electrical measurements with spatial and operational constraints enables robust and scalable topology recovery under realistic deployment conditions.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Retrieval-Guided Photovoltaic Inventory Estimation from Satellite Imagery for Distribution Grid Planning

The rapid expansion of distributed rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems introduces increasing uncertainty in distribution grid planning, hosting capacity assessment, and voltage regulation. Reliable estimation of rooftop PV deployment from satellite imagery is therefore essential for accurate modeling of distributed generation at feeder and service-territory scales. However, conventional computer vision approaches rely on fixed learned representations and globally averaged visual correlations. This makes them sensitive to geographic distribution shifts caused by differences in roof materials, urban morphology, and imaging conditions across regions. To address these challenges, this paper proposes Solar Retrieval-Augmented Generation (Solar-RAG), a context-grounded framework for photovoltaic assessment that integrates similarity-based image retrieval with multimodal vision-language reasoning. Instead of producing predictions solely from internal model parameters, the proposed approach retrieves visually similar rooftop scenes with verified annotations and performs comparative reasoning against these examples during inference. This retrieval-guided mechanism provides geographically contextualized references that improve robustness under heterogeneous urban environments without requiring model retraining. The method outperform both conventional deep vision models and standalone vision-language models. Furthermore, feeder-level case studies show that improved PV inventory estimation reduces errors in voltage deviation analysis and hosting capacity assessment. The results demonstrate that the proposed method provides a scalable and geographically robust approach for monitoring distributed PV deployment. This enables more reliable integration of remote sensing data into distribution grid planning and distributed energy resource management.

eess.IV↗

arXiv2025

Cross-Domain Generalization of Multimodal LLMs for Global Photovoltaic Assessment

The rapid expansion of distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems poses challenges for power grid management, as many installations remain undocumented. While satellite imagery provides global coverage, traditional computer vision (CV) models such as CNNs and U-Nets require extensive labeled data and fail to generalize across regions. This study investigates the cross-domain generalization of a multimodal large language model (LLM) for global PV assessment. By leveraging structured prompts and fine-tuning, the model integrates detection, localization, and quantification within a unified schema. Cross-regional evaluation using the $\Delta$F1 metric demonstrates that the proposed model achieves the smallest performance degradation across unseen regions, outperforming conventional CV and transformer baselines. These results highlight the robustness of multimodal LLMs under domain shift and their potential for scalable, transferable, and interpretable global PV mapping.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

M$^2$OE$^2$-GL: A Family of Probabilistic Load Forecasters That Scales to Massive Customers

Probabilistic load forecasting is widely studied and underpins power system planning, operation, and risk-aware decision making. Deep learning forecasters have shown strong ability to capture complex temporal and contextual patterns, achieving substantial accuracy gains. However, at the scale of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of loads in large distribution feeders, a deployment dilemma emerges: training and maintaining one model per customer is computationally and storage intensive, while using a single global model ignores distributional shifts across customer types, locations, and phases. Prior work typically focuses on single-load forecasters, global models across multiple loads, or adaptive/personalized models for relatively small settings, and rarely addresses the combined challenges of heterogeneity and scalability in large feeders. We propose M2OE2-GL, a global-to-local extension of the M2OE2 probabilistic forecaster. We first pretrain a single global M2OE2 base model across all feeder loads, then apply lightweight fine-tuning to derive a compact family of group-specific forecasters. Evaluated on realistic utility data, M2OE2-GL yields substantial error reductions while remaining scalable to very large numbers of loads.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Modeling Time Series Dynamics with Fourier Ordinary Differential Equations

Neural ODEs (NODEs) have emerged as powerful tools for modeling time series data, offering the flexibility to adapt to varying input scales and capture complex dynamics. However, they face significant challenges: first, their reliance on time-domain representations often limits their ability to capture long-term dependencies and periodic structures; second, the inherent mismatch between their continuous-time formulation and the discrete nature of real-world data can lead to loss of granularity and predictive accuracy. To address these limitations, we propose Fourier Ordinary Differential Equations (FODEs), an approach that embeds the dynamics in the Fourier domain. By transforming time-series data into the frequency domain using the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT), FODEs uncover global patterns and periodic behaviors that remain elusive in the time domain. Additionally, we introduce a learnable element-wise filtering mechanism that aligns continuous model outputs with discrete observations, preserving granularity and enhancing accuracy. Experiments on various time series datasets demonstrate that FODEs outperform existing methods in terms of both accuracy and efficiency. By effectively capturing both long- and short-term patterns, FODEs provide a robust framework for modeling time series dynamics.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Efficient Manifold-Constrained Neural ODE for High-Dimensional Datasets

Neural ordinary differential equations (NODE) have garnered significant attention for their design of continuous-depth neural networks and the ability to learn data/feature dynamics. However, for high-dimensional systems, estimating dynamics requires extensive calculations and suffers from high truncation errors for the ODE solvers. To address the issue, one intuitive approach is to consider the non-trivial topological space of the data distribution, i.e., a low-dimensional manifold. Existing methods often rely on knowledge of the manifold for projection or implicit transformation, restricting the ODE solutions on the manifold. Nevertheless, such knowledge is usually unknown in realistic scenarios. Therefore, we propose a novel approach to explore the underlying manifold to restrict the ODE process. Specifically, we employ a structure-preserved encoder to process data and find the underlying graph to approximate the manifold. Moreover, we propose novel methods to combine the NODE learning with the manifold, resulting in significant gains in computational speed and accuracy. Our experimental evaluations encompass multiple datasets, where we compare the accuracy, number of function evaluations (NFEs), and convergence speed of our model against existing baselines. Our results demonstrate superior performance, underscoring the effectiveness of our approach in addressing the challenges of high-dimensional datasets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Latent Mixture of Symmetries for Sample-Efficient Dynamic Learning

Learning dynamics is essential for model-based control and Reinforcement Learning in engineering systems, such as robotics and power systems. However, limited system measurements, such as those from low-resolution sensors, demand sample-efficient learning. Symmetry provides a powerful inductive bias by characterizing equivariant relations in system states to improve sample efficiency. While recent methods attempt to discover symmetries from data, they typically assume a single global symmetry group and treat symmetry discovery and dynamic learning as separate tasks, leading to limited expressiveness and error accumulation. In this paper, we propose the Latent Mixture of Symmetries (Latent MoS), an expressive model that captures a mixture of symmetry-governed latent factors from complex dynamical measurements. Latent MoS focuses on dynamic learning while locally and provably preserving the underlying symmetric transformations. To further capture long-term equivariance, we introduce a hierarchical architecture that stacks MoS blocks. Numerical experiments in diverse physical systems demonstrate that Latent MoS outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in interpolation and extrapolation tasks while offering interpretable latent representations suitable for future geometric and safety-critical analyses.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

From Imperfect Signals to Trustworthy Structure: Confidence-Aware Inference from Heterogeneous and Reliability-Varying Utility Data

Accurate distribution grid topology is essential for reliable modern grid operations. However, real-world utility data originates from multiple sources with varying characteristics and levels of quality. In this work, developed in collaboration with Oncor Electric Delivery, we propose a scalable framework that reconstructs a trustworthy grid topology by systematically integrating heterogeneous data. We observe that distribution topology is fundamentally governed by two complementary dimensions: the spatial layout of physical infrastructure (e.g., GIS and asset metadata) and the dynamic behavior of the system in the signal domain (e.g., voltage time series). When jointly leveraged, these dimensions support a complete and physically coherent reconstruction of network connectivity. To address the challenge of uneven data quality without compromising observability, we introduce a confidence-aware inference mechanism that preserves structurally informative yet imperfect inputs, while quantifying the reliability of each inferred connection for operator interpretation. This soft handling of uncertainty is tightly coupled with hard enforcement of physical feasibility: we embed operational constraints, such as transformer capacity limits and radial topology requirements, directly into the learning process. Together, these components ensure that inference is both uncertainty-aware and structurally valid, enabling rapid convergence to actionable, trustworthy topologies under real-world deployment conditions. The proposed framework is validated using data from over 8000 meters across 3 feeders in Oncor's service territory, demonstrating over 95% accuracy in topology reconstruction and substantial improvements in confidence calibration and computational efficiency relative to baseline methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Neural Predictive Control to Coordinate Discrete- and Continuous-Time Models for Time-Series Analysis with Control-Theoretical Improvements

Deep sequence models have achieved notable success in time-series analysis, such as interpolation and forecasting. Recent advances move beyond discrete-time architectures like Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) toward continuous-time formulations such as the family of Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Neural ODEs). Generally, they have shown that capturing the underlying dynamics is beneficial for generic tasks like interpolation, extrapolation, and classification. However, existing methods approximate the dynamics using unconstrained neural networks, which struggle to adapt reliably under distributional shifts. In this paper, we recast time-series problems as the continuous ODE-based optimal control problem. Rather than learning dynamics solely from data, we optimize control actions that steer ODE trajectories toward task objectives, bringing control-theoretical performance guarantees. To achieve this goal, we need to (1) design the appropriate control actions and (2) apply effective optimal control algorithms. As the actions should contain rich context information, we propose to employ the discrete-time model to process past sequences and generate actions, leading to a coordinate model to extract long-term temporal features to modulate short-term continuous dynamics. During training, we apply model predictive control to plan multi-step future trajectories, minimize a task-specific cost, and greedily select the optimal current action. We show that, under mild assumptions, this multi-horizon optimization leads to exponential convergence to infinite-horizon solutions, indicating that the coordinate model can gain robust and generalizable performance. Extensive experiments on diverse time-series datasets validate our method's superior generalization and adaptability compared to state-of-the-art baselines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Graph Structure Learning with Privacy Guarantees for Open Graph Data

Publishing open graph data while preserving individual privacy remains challenging when data publishers and data users are distinct entities. Although differential privacy (DP) provides rigorous guarantees, most existing approaches enforce privacy during model training rather than at the data publishing stage. This limits the applicability to open-data scenarios. We propose a privacy-preserving graph structure learning framework that integrates Gaussian Differential Privacy (GDP) directly into the data release process. Our mechanism injects structured Gaussian noise into raw data prior to publication and provides formal $\mu$-GDP guarantees, leading to tight $(\varepsilon, \delta)$-differential privacy bounds. Despite the distortion introduced by privatization, we prove that the original sparse inverse covariance structure can be recovered through an unbiased penalized likelihood formulation. We further extend the framework to discrete data using discrete Gaussian noise while preserving privacy guarantees. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate strong privacy-utility trade-offs, maintaining high graph recovery accuracy under rigorous privacy budgets. Our results establish a formal connection between differential privacy theory and privacy-preserving data publishing for graphical models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Solar Photovoltaic Assessment with Large Language Model

Accurate detection and localization of solar photovoltaic (PV) panels in satellite imagery is essential for optimizing microgrids and active distribution networks (ADNs), which are critical components of renewable energy systems. Existing methods lack transparency regarding their underlying algorithms or training datasets, rely on large, high-quality PV training data, and struggle to generalize to new geographic regions or varied environmental conditions without extensive re-training. These limitations lead to inconsistent detection outcomes, hindering large-scale deployment and data-driven grid optimization. In this paper, we investigate how large language models (LLMs) can be leveraged to overcome these challenges. Despite their promise, LLMs face several challenges in solar panel detection, including difficulties with multi-step logical processes, inconsistent output formatting, frequent misclassification of visually similar objects (e.g., shadows, parking lots), and low accuracy in complex tasks such as spatial localization and quantification. To overcome these issues, we propose the PV Assessment with LLMs (PVAL) framework, which incorporates task decomposition for more efficient workflows, output standardization for consistent and scalable formatting, few-shot prompting to enhance classification accuracy, and fine-tuning using curated PV datasets with detailed annotations. PVAL ensures transparency, scalability, and adaptability across heterogeneous datasets while minimizing computational overhead. By combining open-source accessibility with robust methodologies, PVAL establishes an automated and reproducible pipeline for solar panel detection, paving the way for large-scale renewable energy integration and optimized grid management.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

External Data-Enhanced Meta-Representation for Adaptive Probabilistic Load Forecasting

Accurate residential load forecasting is critical for power system reliability with rising renewable integration and demand-side flexibility. However, most statistical and machine learning models treat external factors, such as weather, calendar effects, and pricing, as extra input, ignoring their heterogeneity, and thus limiting the extraction of useful external information. We propose a paradigm shift: external data should serve as meta-knowledge to dynamically adapt the forecasting model itself. Based on this idea, we design a meta-representation framework using hypernetworks that modulate selected parameters of a base Deep Learning (DL) model in response to external conditions. This provides both expressivity and adaptability. We further integrate a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) mechanism to enhance efficiency through selective expert activation, while improving robustness by filtering redundant external inputs. The resulting model, dubbed as a Meta Mixture of Experts for External data (M2oE2), achieves substantial improvements in accuracy and robustness with limited additional overhead, outperforming existing state-of-the-art methods in diverse load datasets. The dataset and source code are publicly available at https://github.com/haorandd/M2oE2\_load\_forecast.git.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

ExARNN: An Environment-Driven Adaptive RNN for Learning Non-Stationary Power Dynamics

Non-stationary power system dynamics, influenced by renewable energy variability, evolving demand patterns, and climate change, are becoming increasingly complex. Accurately capturing these dynamics requires a model capable of adapting to environmental factors. Traditional models, including Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), lack efficient mechanisms to encode external factors, such as time or environmental data, for dynamic adaptation. To address this, we propose the External Adaptive RNN (ExARNN), a novel framework that integrates external data (e.g., weather, time) to continuously adjust the parameters of a base RNN. ExARNN achieves this through a hierarchical hypernetwork design, using Neural Controlled Differential Equations (NCDE) to process external data and generate RNN parameters adaptively. This approach enables ExARNN to handle inconsistent timestamps between power and external measurements, ensuring continuous adaptation. Extensive forecasting tests demonstrate ExARNN's superiority over established baseline models.

cs.LG↗