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arXiv · 2508.07789

Modelling phenology using ordered categorical generalized additive models

David L Miller
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Abstract

One form of data collected in ecology is phenological, describing the timing of life stages. It can be tempting to analyze such data using a continuous distribution or to model individual transitions via probit/logit models. Such simplifications can lead to incorrect inference in various ways, all of which stem from ignoring the natural structure of the data. This paper presents a flexible approach to modelling ordered categorical data using the popular R package `mgcv`. An example analysis of saxifrage phenology in Greenland including useful plots, model checking and derived quantities is included.

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David L Miller. 2025-08-11. Modelling phenology using ordered categorical generalized additive models. https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.07789

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