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David L Miller

Publications and source records attributed to David L Miller.

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Modelling phenology using ordered categorical generalized additive models

One form of data collected in ecology is phenological, describing the timing of life stages. It can be tempting to analyze such data using a continuous distribution or to model individual transitions via probit/logit models. Such simplifications can lead to incorrect inference in various ways, all of which stem from ignoring the natural structure of the data. This paper presents a flexible approach to modelling ordered categorical data using the popular R package `mgcv`. An example analysis of saxifrage phenology in Greenland including useful plots, model checking and derived quantities is included.

stat.ME

Adding structure to generalized additive models, with applications in ecology

Generalized additive models (GAMs) connecting a set of scalar covariates that map 1-1 to a response are commonly employed in ecology and beyond. However, covariates are often inherently non-scalar, taking multiple values for each observation of the response. They can sometimes have a temporal structure, e.g., a time series of temperatures, or a spatial structure, e.g., multiple soil pH measurements made at nearby locations. While aggregating or selectively summarizing such covariates to yield a scalar covariate allows the use of standard GAM fitting procedures, exactly how to do so can be problematic and information is necessarily lost. Naively including all $p$ components of a vector-valued covariate as $p$ separate covariates, say, without recognizing the structure, can lead to problems of multicollinearity, data sets that are excessively wide given the sample size, and difficulty extracting the primary signal provided by the covariate. Here we introduce three useful extensions to GAMs that efficiently and effectively handle vector-valued covariates without requiring one to choose aggregations or selective summarizations. These extensions are varying-coefficient, scalar-on-function and distributed lag models. While these models have existed for some time they remain relatively underused in ecology. This article aims to show when these models can be useful and how to fit them with the popular R package \mgcv{}.

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Variance propagation for density surface models

Spatially-explicit estimates of population density, together with appropriate estimates of uncertainty, are required in many management contexts. Density Surface Models (DSMs) are a two-stage approach for estimating spatially-varying density from distance-sampling data. First, detection probabilities -- perhaps depending on covariates -- are estimated based on details of individual encounters; next, local densities are estimated using a GAM, by fitting local encounter rates to location and/or spatially-varying covariates while allowing for the estimated detectabilities. One criticism of DSMs has been that uncertainty from the two stages is not usually propagated correctly into the final variance estimates. We show how to reformulate a DSM so that the uncertainty in detection probability from the distance sampling stage (regardless of its complexity) is captured as an extra random effect in the GAM stage. In effect, we refit an approximation to the detection function model at the same time as fitting the spatial model. This allows straightforward computation of the overall variance via exactly the same software already needed to fit the GAM. A further extension allows for spatial variation in group size, which can be an important covariate for detectability as well as directly affecting abundance. We illustrate these models using point transect survey data of Island Scrub-Jays on Santa Cruz Island, CA and harbour porpoise from the SCANS-II line transect survey of European waters.

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Understanding the stochastic partial differential equation approach to smoothing

Correlation and smoothness are terms used to describe a wide variety of random quantities. In time, space, and many other domains, they both imply the same idea: quantities that occur closer together are more similar than those further apart. Two popular statistical models that represent this idea are basis-penalty smoothers (Wood, 2017) and stochastic partial differential equations (SPDE) (Lindgren et al., 2011). In this paper, we discuss how the SPDE can be interpreted as a smoothing penalty and can be fitted using the R package mgcv, allowing practitioners with existing knowledge of smoothing penalties to better understand the implementation and theory behind the SPDE approach.

stat.ME