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arXiv · 2508.12201

A mathematical model of HPAI transmission between dairy cattle and wild birds with environmental effects

H. O. Fatoyinbo·P. Tiwari·P. O. Olanipekun·I. Ghosh
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Abstract

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), particularly H5N1, poses an increasing threat at the wildlife--livestock--environment interface, with recent detections in dairy cattle motivating multi-host transmission models. We develop and analyse a deterministic compartmental model for HPAI transmission among cattle, wild birds, and a shared contaminated environment. The model combines an SEIR structure for cattle with an SIR framework for wild birds and includes environmentally mediated transmission. We establish positivity and boundedness, characterise the disease-free and endemic equilibria, and derive the basic reproduction number $\mathcal R_0$ as the spectral radius of a reduced next-generation matrix representing coupled transmission pathways. We also establish threshold and global stability properties of the equilibria. Numerical simulations illustrate extinction, persistence, and parameter-dependent disease dynamics. Global sensitivity analysis identifies cattle recovery, cattle-to-cattle transmission, environmental viral decay, and environmental transmission as the principal determinants of $\mathcal R_0$ within the parameter ranges considered. Response-surface and intervention analyses indicate that reducing cattle-to-cattle transmission produces the greatest reduction in transmission potential and peak cattle infection, while increasing cattle recovery provides an additional effective pathway. Reducing environmental transmission alone has a comparatively small effect under the baseline parameterisation. Within the model assumptions and parameter ranges considered, the findings provide qualitative insights into the relative effects of transmission pathways and potential control measures.

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H. O. Fatoyinbo, P. Tiwari, P. O. Olanipekun, I. Ghosh. 2025-08-17. A mathematical model of HPAI transmission between dairy cattle and wild birds with environmental effects. https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.12201

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