arXiv subjects

H. O. Fatoyinbo

Publications and source records attributed to H. O. Fatoyinbo.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A mathematical model of HPAI transmission between dairy cattle and wild birds with environmental effects

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), particularly H5N1, poses an increasing threat at the wildlife--livestock--environment interface, with recent detections in dairy cattle motivating multi-host transmission models. We develop and analyse a deterministic compartmental model for HPAI transmission among cattle, wild birds, and a shared contaminated environment. The model combines an SEIR structure for cattle with an SIR framework for wild birds and includes environmentally mediated transmission. We establish positivity and boundedness, characterise the disease-free and endemic equilibria, and derive the basic reproduction number $\mathcal R_0$ as the spectral radius of a reduced next-generation matrix representing coupled transmission pathways. We also establish threshold and global stability properties of the equilibria. Numerical simulations illustrate extinction, persistence, and parameter-dependent disease dynamics. Global sensitivity analysis identifies cattle recovery, cattle-to-cattle transmission, environmental viral decay, and environmental transmission as the principal determinants of $\mathcal R_0$ within the parameter ranges considered. Response-surface and intervention analyses indicate that reducing cattle-to-cattle transmission produces the greatest reduction in transmission potential and peak cattle infection, while increasing cattle recovery provides an additional effective pathway. Reducing environmental transmission alone has a comparatively small effect under the baseline parameterisation. Within the model assumptions and parameter ranges considered, the findings provide qualitative insights into the relative effects of transmission pathways and potential control measures.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2025

Disrupting the scammer lifecycle: A dynamically-consistent numerical analysis of a compartment model for scam-victim dynamics

Online deception and financial scams represent a pervasive threat in the digital age, yet a quantitative analysis and understanding of their propagation is lacking. This study introduces a novel model based on the framework of epidemiological models to describe the interaction between scammers and their victims. We propose a five-compartment deterministic model ($S-V-R-A_s-R_s$) calibrated using longitudinal data in fraud reports from the Canadian Anti-Fraud Centre. The model's theoretical properties are established, including the non-negativity of the state variables and the stability threshold defined by the basic reproduction number ($\mathcal{R}_0$). A non-standard finite difference scheme is developed for the numerical simulations to ensure dynamical consistency between the continuous deterministic model and its discrete equivalent. A key finding of the model sensitivity analysis indicates that the proliferation of scams is overwhelmingly driven by the lifecycle of scammers, their recruitment, attrition, and arrest, rather than the susceptibility of the victim population. The results of this study provide strong quantitative evidence that the most effective control strategies are those that directly disrupt the scammers' population. Overall, this study provides a crucial model for designing and evaluating evidence-based policies to combat the scourge of cybercrime.

math.DS↗

arXiv2021

Pattern Formation in a Spatially-Extended Model of Pacemaker Dynamics in Smooth Muscle Cells

Spatiotemporal patterns are common in biological systems. For electrically-coupled cells previous studies of pattern formation have mainly used external forcing as the main bifurcation parameter. The purpose of this paper is to show that spatiotemporal patterns in electrically-coupled smooth muscle cells occur even in the absence of forcing. We study a reaction-diffusion system with the Morris-Lecar equations and observe a wide range of spatiotemporal patterns for different values of the model parameters. Some aspects of these patterns are explained via a bifurcation analysis of the system without coupling -- in particular Type I and Type II excitability both occur. We show the patterns are not due to a Turing instability and use travelling wave coordinates to analyse travelling waves.

math.DS↗