Enhanced Predictive Modeling for Hazardous Near-Earth Object Detection: A Comparative Analysis of Advanced Resampling Strategies and Machine Learning Algorithms in Planetary Risk Assessment

Abstract

This study evaluates the performance of several machine learning models for predicting hazardous near-Earth objects (NEOs) through a binary classification framework, including data scaling, power transformation, and cross-validation. Six classifiers were compared, namely Random Forest Classifier (RFC), Gradient Boosting Classifier (GBC), Support Vector Classifier (SVC), Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), Logistic Regression (LR), and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN). RFC and GBC performed the best, both with an impressive F2-score of 0.987 and 0.986, respectively, with very small variability. SVC followed, with a lower but reasonable score of 0.896. LDA and LR had a moderate performance with scores of around 0.749 and 0.748, respectively, while KNN had a poor performance with a score of 0.691 due to difficulty in handling complex data patterns. RFC and GBC also presented great confusion matrices with a negligible number of false positives and false negatives, which resulted in outstanding accuracy rates of 99.7% and 99.6%, respectively. These findings highlight the power of ensemble methods for high precision and recall and further point out the importance of tailored model selection with regard to dataset characteristics and chosen evaluation metrics. Future research could focus on the optimization of hyperparameters with advanced features engineering to further the accuracy and robustness of the model on NEO hazard predictions.