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arXiv · 2509.13371

A novel approach of day-ahead cooling load prediction and optimal control for ice-based thermal energy storage (TES) system in commercial buildings

Xuyuan Kang·Xiao Wang·Jingjing An·Da Yan
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Abstract

Thermal energy storage (TES) is an effective method for load shifting and demand response in buildings. Optimal TES control and management are essential to improve the performance of the cooling system. Most existing TES systems operate on a fixed schedule, which cannot take full advantage of its load shifting capability, and requires extensive investigation and optimization. This study proposed a novel integrated load prediction and optimized control approach for ice-based TES in commercial buildings. A cooling load prediction model was developed and a mid-day modification mechanism was introduced into the prediction model to improve the accuracy. Based on the predictions, a rule-based control strategy was proposed according to the time-of-use tariff; the mid-day control adjustment mechanism was introduced in accordance with the mid-day prediction modifications. The proposed approach was applied in the ice-based TES system of a commercial complex in Beijing, and achieved a mean absolute error (MAE) of 389 kW and coefficient of variance of MAE of 12.5%. The integrated prediction-based control strategy achieved an energy cost saving rate of 9.9%. The proposed model was deployed in the realistic building automation system of the case building and significantly improved the efficiency and automation of the cooling system.

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Xuyuan Kang, Xiao Wang, Jingjing An, Da Yan. 2025-09-16. A novel approach of day-ahead cooling load prediction and optimal control for ice-based thermal energy storage (TES) system in commercial buildings. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2022.112478

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