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arXiv · 2509.13994

Day-Ahead Transmission Grid Topology Optimization Considering Renewable Energy Sources' Uncertainty

Giacomo Bastianel·Dirk Van Hertem·Hakan Ergun·Line Roald
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Abstract

The increasing renewable penetration introduces significant uncertainty in power system operations. At the same time, the existing transmission grid is often already congested, and urgently needed reinforcements are frequently delayed due to several constraints. To address these challenges, adjusting the grid topology based on congestion patterns is considered a non-costly remedy to guarantee efficient power transmission. Based on this idea, this paper proposes a grid topology optimization model combining optimal transmission switching and busbar splitting for AC and hybrid AC/DC grids. The methodology incorporates RES forecast uncertainty through a scenario-based stochastic optimization approach, using real offshore wind data and K-means clustering to generate representative forecast error scenarios. The proposed model includes several formulations to be compared with a plain optimal power flow (OPF) model: hourly optimizing the topology, one topology for 24 hours, or a limited number of switching actions over a day. The grid topology optimization model is formulated as a Mixed-Integer Quadratic Convex Problem, optimized based on the day-ahead (D-1) RES forecast and validated for AC-feasibility via an AC-OPF formulation. Based on the generation setpoints of the feasibility check, a redispatch simulation based on the measured (D) RES realization is then computed. The methodology is tested on an AC 30-bus test case and a hybrid AC/DC 50-bus test case, for a 24-hours (30-bus) and a 14-days (both test cases) time series. The results highlight the economic benefits brought by grid topology optimization for congested test cases with high penetration of RES. In addition, the results demonstrate that accounting for RES uncertainty with at least 6 to 8 scenarios leads to lower or comparable total costs to deterministic day-ahead forecasts, even when limiting the frequency of topological actions.

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BibTeXRIS

Giacomo Bastianel, Dirk Van Hertem, Hakan Ergun, Line Roald. 2025-09-17. Day-Ahead Transmission Grid Topology Optimization Considering Renewable Energy Sources' Uncertainty. https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.13994

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