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arXiv · 2509.17928

Developing a Dynamic Mobility Model for Backcasting Applications: A Case Study with Shared Autonomous Vehicles

Théotime Héraud·Vinith Lakshmanan·Antonio Sciarretta
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Abstract

This study proposes the application of a backcasting approach to a mobility model with the aim of defining an optimal decarbonization roadmap. The selected decision variable is the introduction of a fleet of shared autonomous vehicles. The mobility model developed is composed of six interconnected sub-models. After presenting each of these models in detail, a method is introduced to analyze the direct and indirect effects of the measure, and a necessary condition for the occurrence of an undesirable effect is identified. Simulations in both forecasting and backcasting frameworks are then conducted, demonstrating the relevance of backcasting: it enables a 10% reduction in operator costs compared to forecasting results, while maintaining the same level of emissions.

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Théotime Héraud, Vinith Lakshmanan, Antonio Sciarretta. 2025-09-22. Developing a Dynamic Mobility Model for Backcasting Applications: A Case Study with Shared Autonomous Vehicles. https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.17928

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