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arXiv · 2509.18227

Predicted decline in common bird and butterfly species despite conservation policy scenarios in Europe

Stanislas Rigal·Maxime Lenormand·Léa Tardieu·Hany Alonso·Ainārs Auniņš·Tristan Bakx·Michiel Boom·Mattia Brambilla·Lluis Brotons·Tomasz Chodkiewicz·Benoît Fontaine·Zdenek Faltynek Fric·Anna Gamero·Sergi Herrando·John Atle Kålås·Johannes Kamp·Petras Kurlavičius·Mikko Kuussaari·Aleksi Lehikoinen·Dirk Maes·Xavier Mestdagh·Martin Musche·Ingar Jostein Øien·Lars Pettersson·Jiří Reif·Johannes Rüdisser·Martina Šašić·Reto Schmucki·Josef Settele·Constanti Stefanescu·Bård Gunnar Stokke·Nicolas Strebel·Nicolas Titeux·Sven Trautmann·Chris Van Swaay·Sandra Luque
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Abstract

In response to increasing threats to biodiversity, conservation objectives have been set to halt biodiversity decline by reducing direct anthropogenic drivers. However, the potential effects of these objectives on common species remain rarely studied. We analyse the effect of a range of drivers related to climate, land use and land use intensity, on 265 common bird and 144 common butterfly species from more than 20,000 sites between 2000 and 2021 across 26 European countries. We use land-use and land-use intensity scenarios produced previously using the IPBES Nature Futures Framework, and climate change scenarios in order to project biodiversity drivers in Europe up to 2050. We translate these driver changes into abundance variations for common bird and butterfly species, and for multi-species indicators used to monitor common biodiversity status in Europe. The projected trends relatively improve, while still declining for birds, notably farmland species, under the scenarios meeting conservation objectives, with few effects on butterflies. No scenario shows a stop or a reversal in the average decline in abundance of bird and butterfly species. Our results therefore question the common biodiversity future under current conservation policies and highlight the need for other anticipatory frameworks, not implicitly based on a growing need for natural resources.

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Stanislas Rigal, Maxime Lenormand, Léa Tardieu, Hany Alonso, Ainārs Auniņš, Tristan Bakx, Michiel Boom, Mattia Brambilla, Lluis Brotons, Tomasz Chodkiewicz, Benoît Fontaine, Zdenek Faltynek Fric, Anna Gamero, Sergi Herrando, John Atle Kålås, Johannes Kamp, Petras Kurlavičius, Mikko Kuussaari, Aleksi Lehikoinen, Dirk Maes, Xavier Mestdagh, Martin Musche, Ingar Jostein Øien, Lars Pettersson, Jiří Reif, Johannes Rüdisser, Martina Šašić, Reto Schmucki, Josef Settele, Constanti Stefanescu, Bård Gunnar Stokke, Nicolas Strebel, Nicolas Titeux, Sven Trautmann, Chris Van Swaay, Sandra Luque. 2025-09-22. Predicted decline in common bird and butterfly species despite conservation policy scenarios in Europe. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-026-03139-6

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