Likelihood-free inference for gravitational-wave data analysis and public alerts

Ethan Marx; Deep Chatterjee; Malina Desai; Ravi Kumar; William Benoit; Argyro Sasli; Leo Singer; Michael W. Coughlin; Philip Harris; Erik Katsavounidis

arXiv · 2509.22561

Likelihood-free inference for gravitational-wave data analysis and public alerts

Ethan Marx·Deep Chatterjee·Malina Desai·Ravi Kumar·William Benoit·Argyro Sasli·Leo Singer·Michael W. Coughlin·Philip Harris·Erik Katsavounidis

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Abstract

Rapid and reliable detection and dissemination of source parameter estimation data products from gravitational-wave events, especially sky localization, is critical for maximizing the potential of multi-messenger astronomy. Machine learning based detection and parameter estimation algorithms are emerging as production ready alternatives to traditional approaches. Here, we report validation studies of AMPLFI, a likelihood-free inference solution to low-latency parameter estimation of binary black holes. We use simulated signals added into data from the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA's (LVK's) third observing run (O3) to compare sky localization performance with BAYESTAR, the algorithm currently in production for rapid sky localization of candidates from matched-filter pipelines. We demonstrate sky localization performance, measured by searched area and volume, to be equivalent with BAYESTAR. We show accurate reconstruction of source parameters with uncertainties for use distributing low-latency coarse-grained chirp mass information. In addition, we analyze several candidate events reported by the LVK in the third gravitational-wave transient catalog (GWTC-3) and show consistency with the LVK's analysis. Altogether, we demonstrate AMPLFI's ability to produce data products for low-latency public alerts.

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Ethan Marx, Deep Chatterjee, Malina Desai, Ravi Kumar, William Benoit, Argyro Sasli, Leo Singer, Michael W. Coughlin, Philip Harris, Erik Katsavounidis. 2025-09-26. Likelihood-free inference for gravitational-wave data analysis and public alerts. https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.22561

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