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arXiv · 2509.25298

Trajectories and Comparative Analysis of Global Countries Dominating AI Publications, 2000-2025

Jason Hung
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Abstract

This study investigates the shifting global dynamics of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research by analysing the trajectories of countries dominating AI publications between 2000 and 2025. Drawing on the comprehensive OpenAlex datasets and employing fractional counting to avoid double attribution in co-authored work, the research maps the relative shares of AI publications across major global players. The analysis reveals a profound restructuring of the international AI research landscape. The US and the European Union (representing EU27), once the undisputed and established leaders, have experienced a notable decline in relative dominance, with their combined share of publications falling from over 57% in 2000 to less than 25% in 2025. In contrast, China has undergone a dramatic ascent, expanding its global share of AI publications from under 5% in 2000 to nearly 36% by 2025, therefore emerging as the single most dominant contributor. Alongside China, India has also risen substantially, consolidating a multipolar Asian research ecosystem. These empirical findings highlight the strategic implications of concentrated research output, particularly China's capacity to shape the future direction of AI innovation and standard-setting. Beyond publication volume, the study further examines research quality by comparing each country's share of high-impact publications against its overall output, and analyses citation impact trajectories across major players. The findings show that in addition to China leading in volume, the country has also recently led in high-impact publications. Such an observation challenges the general assumption that Western powers retain dominance in high-impact AI scholarship.

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Jason Hung. 2025-09-29. Trajectories and Comparative Analysis of Global Countries Dominating AI Publications, 2000-2025. https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.25298

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