Model Predictions for the 2025 October Draconid Outburst

Auriane Egal; Paul Wiegert; Danielle E. Moser; Peter G. Brown; Margaret Campbell-Brown

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arXiv · 2509.25639

Model Predictions for the 2025 October Draconid Outburst

Auriane Egal·Paul Wiegert·Danielle E. Moser·Peter G. Brown·Margaret Campbell-Brown

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Abstract

The October Draconid meteor shower, produced by comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner, is notorious for rare but intense outbursts, some exceeding rates of about 10 000 meteors per hour. In 2025, Earth will encounter young trails ejected by the comet in 2005 and 2012, producing a meteor outburst and providing a rare opportunity to probe their structure and benchmark meteoroid stream models. We present predictions from three independent dynamical models (NIMS, MSFC, Sisyphus), calibrated against updated activity profiles including the newly observed 2019 and 2024 outbursts. All simulations predict enhanced activity on 2025 October 8, dominated by faint meteors (m < 0.01 g; +4 mag and fainter) primarily detectable by radar. Our best estimate is a radar outburst near 15:00 - 16:00 UT, driven mainly by the 2012 trail with a possible minor contribution from 2005. The 2025 Draconids may represent one of the strongest radar dominated outbursts of the decade. Coordinated observing campaigns, especially radar measurements across the Northern Hemisphere and optical coverage from Asia, will be essential to validate these forecasts, constrain the dust environment of comet 21P, and improve future predictions of young meteoroid trails.

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Auriane Egal, Paul Wiegert, Danielle E. Moser, Peter G. Brown, Margaret Campbell-Brown. 2025-09-30. Model Predictions for the 2025 October Draconid Outburst. https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.25639

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