arXiv subjects

Margaret Campbell-Brown

Publications and source records attributed to Margaret Campbell-Brown.

17 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Shock wave formation in the thermosphere by an earthgrazing fireball: Empirical evidence for volatile-enhanced hydrodynamic shielding

Hydrodynamic shielding is a theoretically well-established but observationally elusive and experimentally difficult-to-replicate phenomenon with implications that extend far beyond meteor physics. Rare earthgrazing meteoroids with infrasound signatures that penetrate to the ground can be used to probe hydrodynamic shielding that leads to strong shock formation at high altitude. Here, we report the first coordinated optical and multi-station infrasound observations of a centimeter-scale earthgrazing fireball that generated sustained cylindrical line shock at thermospheric altitudes near 92 km. The event was recorded by numerous optical stations and three infrasound arrays, allowing trajectory reconstruction, ablation behavior, acoustic source localization, and shock characteristics. Optical observations indicate early mechanical erosion and ablation/evaporation at exceptionally low dynamic pressure, consistent with a cometary or a porous, volatile-bearing CM chondritic object. Independent infrasound detections localize shock generation to multiple points along a 164 km trajectory segment near perigee. Weak-shock modeling yields a consistent blast radius of ~30 m, implying an acoustic-equivalent source size far exceeding the physical dimensions of the ~45 g nucleus. We demonstrate that classical gas dynamics and ablation-driven hydrodynamic shielding alone cannot account for these observations under ambient thermospheric conditions. We show that volatile release provides the additional flow-field density enhancement required to amplify hydrodynamic shielding, reduce the effective local Knudsen number, and sustain a shock envelope capable of radiating detectable infrasound. These results demonstrate that small, volatile-rich meteoroids can transiently establish continuum-like flow in rarefied environments.

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arXiv2026

Correcting radar meteor fluxes for observing biases

We report on an eight year survey of simultaneous optical and radar meteor detections with the goal of isolating the fraction of meteors missed by specular radars. A total of 10,503 Electron Multiplied Charge Couple Device (EMCCD) meteors with peak brightness above +7 were simultaneously detected by the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR) and used to estimate the fraction of radar echoes missed as a function of speed and height. During the time period that our cameras were recording, we found some 34,119 and 18,008 meteor echoes in total occurred within the field of view of the EMCCD cameras at 29 and 38 MHz respectively. This demonstrated that a significant fraction of the specular radar echoes remain below the detection threshold of the EMCCD cameras. We used these data to derive corrections for radar-specific observing biases. The optical height distributions for six velocity bins, spanning 10 - 72 km/s were used to determine the fraction of potential radar echoes which are observed for meteors with higher begin heights ($k_c$>96) and for those with lower begin heights. When compared to the correction factors currently used in calculating shower fluxes with CMOR, mid-velocity showers such as the Geminids and South Delta Aquariids are found to have been overcorrected, while high velocity showers like the Perseids and Leonids are significantly undercorrected.

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arXiv2025

Model Predictions for the 2025 October Draconid Outburst

The October Draconid meteor shower, produced by comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner, is notorious for rare but intense outbursts, some exceeding rates of about 10 000 meteors per hour. In 2025, Earth will encounter young trails ejected by the comet in 2005 and 2012, producing a meteor outburst and providing a rare opportunity to probe their structure and benchmark meteoroid stream models. We present predictions from three independent dynamical models (NIMS, MSFC, Sisyphus), calibrated against updated activity profiles including the newly observed 2019 and 2024 outbursts. All simulations predict enhanced activity on 2025 October 8, dominated by faint meteors (m < 0.01 g; +4 mag and fainter) primarily detectable by radar. Our best estimate is a radar outburst near 15:00 - 16:00 UT, driven mainly by the 2012 trail with a possible minor contribution from 2005. The 2025 Draconids may represent one of the strongest radar dominated outbursts of the decade. Coordinated observing campaigns, especially radar measurements across the Northern Hemisphere and optical coverage from Asia, will be essential to validate these forecasts, constrain the dust environment of comet 21P, and improve future predictions of young meteoroid trails.

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arXiv2024

CAMO-S: A meteor-tracking spectrograph at the Canadian Automated Meteor Observatory

The Canadian Automated Meteor Observatory (CAMO) mirror tracking system has been in operation since 2009 and has, to date, produced more than 20,000 two-station meteor observations at meter-level spatial and 10 ms temporal resolution. In 2020, a spectral tracking camera was added in parallel at one of the CAMO stations. To date, it has recorded the spectra of hundreds of faint meteors. Engineering testing from 2020-2023 resulted in the selection of a 150 lpmm grating and an EMCCD camera to achieve a spectral resolution of about 1 nm/pixel in the final configuration. The CAMO spectral system can resolve spectra from individual meteoroid fragments, record spectra for meteors of +2 peak magnitude to as faint as +4 in parts of the lightcurve and produce relative abundance estimates for Mg, Fe and Na. Our preliminary results also show identification of the H and K lines of CA(II). Meteors with strong iron lines were found to have unusual fragmentation behaviour, involving gross fragmentation rather than continuously shedding small particles. The spectra of individual fragments can be resolved in some cases, showing that these Fe-rich objects do not differ in composition among fragments. Our calibration procedure and hardware configuration are discussed together with preliminary results.

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arXiv2023

First holistic modelling of meteoroid ablation and fragmentation: A case study of the Orionids recorded by the Canadian Automated Meteor Observatory

18 mm-sized Orionid meteoroids were captured in 2019 and 2020 by the Canadian Automated Observatory's mirror tracking system. Meteor position measurements were made to an accuracy of $\sim1$ m and the meteors were tracked to a limiting magnitude of about $+7.5$ at the faintest point. The trajectory estimation shows the intrinsic physical dispersion of the Orionid radiant is $0.400^{\circ} \pm 0.062^{\circ}$. An erosion-based entry model was fit to the observations to reproduce ablation and fragmentation for each meteor, simultaneously reproducing the light curve, the dynamics, and the wake. Wake observations were found to directly inform the grain mass distribution released in the modelled erosion. A new luminous efficiency model was derived from simultaneous radar and optical observations and applied in the modelling to improve its accuracy. The results show that the apparent strength of Orionids varies with radiant location and time of appearance during the period of shower activity. The average differential grain mass distribution index was 2.15, higher than found from in-situ estimates, possibly due to the evolution of the physical properties of meteoroids since ejection. All Orionids showed leading fragment morphology which was best explained by stopping the erosion at the peak of the light curve, leaving a non-fragmenting meteoroid with $\sim10\%$ of the original mass. The inverted Orionid meteoroid average bulk density of $\sim300$ kg m$^{-3}$, corresponding to porosities of $\sim90\%$, is consistent with in-situ measurements of larger dust particles by Vega-2 at 1P/Halley and Rosetta at 67P.

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arXiv2022

Characterizing the Daytime Sextantids Meteor Shower and Unveiling the Nature of the Phaethon-Geminid Stream Complex

The Daytime Sextantids meteor shower, part of the Phaethon-Geminid Stream Complex (PGC), is closely related to the Geminids, currently the strongest meteor shower visible at the Earth. The DSX share a similar orbit to asteroid 2005 UD, but the nature of the association remains unclear. From optical data we find that DSX meteors ablate similarly to Geminids, suggesting that they are also high density and consistent with a common origin. From radar data we have isolated 19,007 DSX orbits through application of a novel convex hull approach to determine stream membership. We find at the peak the mean semi-major axis is near 1 AU, eccentricity is 0.86 and that both decrease as a function of solar longitude. The inclination averages 25 degrees at the peak but increases over time. Noticeable DSX activity extends from solar longitude 173-196$^{\circ}$ with a flux plateau between 186 - 189$^{\circ}$. The peak flux is $2 \pm 0.05 \times 10^{-3}$ km$^{-2}$ hr$^{-1}$, equivalent to a ZHR of 20. We estimate a true differential mass index for the shower of $s = 1.64 \pm 0.06$ at the time of peak and an average of $1.70 \pm 0.07$ for days surrounding the peak. The mass of the DSX stream is estimated to be $10^{16}$ g, the same order as 2005 UD, suggesting the stream is too massive to have been created by recent meteoroid production from 2005 UD. We propose that the DSX and 2005 UD were created in the same break-up event that created 3200 Phaethon.

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arXiv2022

Computing optical meteor flux using Global Meteor Network data

Meteor showers and their outbursts are the dominant source of meteoroid impact risk to spacecraft on short time scales. Meteor shower prediction models depend on historical observations to produce accurate forecasts. However, the current lack of quality and persistent world-wide monitoring at optical meteoroid sizes has left some recent major outbursts poorly observed. A novel method of computing meteor shower flux is developed and applied to Global Meteor Network data. The method is verified against previously published observations of the Perseids and the Geminids. The complete mathematical and algorithmic details of computing meteor shower fluxes from video observations are described. As an example application of our approach, the flux measurements of the 2021 Perseid outburst, the 2020-2022 Quadrantids, and 2020-2021 Geminids are presented. The flux of the 2021 Perseids reached similar levels to the 1991-1994 and 2016 outbursts (ZHR $\sim$ 280). The flux of the Quadrantids shows high year-to-year variability in the core of the stream while the longer lasting background activity is less variable, consistent with an age difference between the two components. The Geminids show a double peak in flux near the time of peak.

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arXiv2020

High precision meteor observations with the Canadian Automated Meteor Observatory -- Data reduction pipeline and application to meteoroid mechanical strength measurements

Context. The mirror tracking system of the Canadian Automated Meteor Observatory (CAMO) can track meteors in real time, providing an effective angular resolution of 1 arc second and a temporal resolution of 100 frames per second. Aims. We describe the upgraded hardware and give details of the data calibration and reduction pipeline. We investigate the influence of meteor morphology on radiant and velocity measurement precision, and use direct observations of meteoroid fragmentation to constrain their compressive strengths. Methods. On July 21, 2017, CAMO observed a ~4 second meteor on a JFC orbit. It had a shallow entry angle ~8 deg and 12 fragments were visible in the narrow-field video. The event was manually reduced and the exact moment of fragmentation was determined. The aerodynamic ram pressure at the moment of fragmentation was used as a proxy for compressive strength, and strengths of an additional 19 fragmenting meteoroids were measured in the same way. The uncertainty in the atmosphere mass density was estimated to be +/-25% using NAVGEM-HA data. Results. We find that meteor trajectory accuracy significantly depends on meteor morphology. The CAMO radiant and initial velocity precision for non-fragmenting meteors with short wakes is ~0.5' and 1 m/s, while that for meteors with fragments or long wakes is similar to non-tracking, moderate field of view optical systems (5', ~50 m/s). Measured compressive strengths of 20 fragmenting meteoroids (with less precise radiants due to their morphology) was in the range of 1-4 kPa, which is in excellent accord with Rosetta in-situ measurements of 67P. Fragmentation type and strength do not appear to be dependent on orbit. The mass index of the 12 fragments in the July 21 meteoroid was very high (s = 2.8), indicating possible progressive fragmentation.

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arXiv2020

Modeling the past and future activity of the Halleyids meteor showers

We present a new numerical model of the eta-Aquariid and Orionid meteor showers. The model investigates the origin, variability and age of the eta-Aquariid and Orionid apparitions from 1985 to the present day, in order to forecast their activity over the next several decades. Through the numerical integration of millions of simulated meteoroids and a custom-made particle weighting scheme, we model the characteristics of every eta-Aquariid and Orionid apparition between 1985 and 2050. The modeled showers are calibrated using 35 years of meteor observations including the showers activity profiles and interannual variability. Our model reproduces the general characteristics of the present-day eta-Aquariids, and part of the Orionid activity. Simulations suggest that the age of the eta-Aquariids somewhat exceeds 5000 years, while a greater fraction of the Orionids are composed of older material. The 1:6 mean-motion resonance with Jupiter plays a major role in generating some (but not all) Halleyid stream outbursts. We find consistent evidence for a periodicity of 11.8 years in both the observations and modeled maximum meteor rates for the Orionids. A weaker evidence of a 10.7 year period in the peak activity for the eta-Aquariids needs to be investigated with future meteor observations. The extension of our model to future years predicts no significant Orionid outburst through 2050 and four significant eta-Aquariid outbursts in 2023, 2024, 2045 and 2046.

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arXiv2020

Estimating trajectories of meteors: an observational Monte Carlo approach -- I. Theory

It has recently been shown by Egal et al. (2017) that some types of existing meteor in-atmosphere trajectory estimation methods may be less accurate than others, particularly when applied to high precision optical measurements. The comparative performance of trajectory solution methods has previously only been examined for a small number of cases. Besides the radiant, orbital accuracy depends on the estimation of pre-atmosphere velocities, which have both random and systematic biases. Thus it is critical to understand the uncertainty in velocity measurement inherent to each trajectory estimation method. In this first of a series of two papers, we introduce a novel meteor trajectory estimation method which uses the observed dynamics of meteors across stations as a global optimization function and which does not require either a theoretical or empirical flight model to solve for velocity. We also develop a 3D observational meteor trajectory simulator that uses a meteor ablation model to replicate the dynamics of meteoroid flight, as a means to validate different trajectory solvers. We both test this new method and compare it to other methods, using synthetic meteors from three major showers spanning a wide range of velocities and geometries (Draconids, Geminids, Perseids). We determine which meteor trajectory solving algorithm performs better for: all-sky, moderate field of view, and high-precision narrow-field optical meteor detection systems. The results are presented in the second paper in this series. Finally, we give detailed equations for estimating meteor trajectories and analytically computing meteoroid orbits, and provide the Python code of the methodology as open source software.

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arXiv2020

A new method for measuring the meteor mass index: application to the 2018 Draconid meteor shower outburst

Context. Several authors predicted an outburst of the Draconid meteor shower in 2018, but with an uncertain level of activity. Aims. Optical meteor observations were used to derive the population and mass indices, flux, and radiant positions of Draconid meteors. Methods. 90 minutes of multi-station observations after the predicted peak of activity were performed using highly sensitive Electron Multiplying Charge Coupled Device (EMCCD) cameras. The data calibration is discussed in detail. A novel maximum likelihood estimation method of computing the population and mass index with robust error estimation was developed. We apply the method to observed Draconids and use the values to derive the flux. Meteor trajectories are computed and compared to predicted radiant positions from meteoroid ejection models. Results. We found that the mass index was $1.74 \pm 0.18$ in the 30 minute bin after the predicted peak, and $2.32 \pm 0.27$ in the next 60 minutes. The location and the dispersion of the radiant matches well to modeled values, but there is an offset of $0.4^{\circ}$ in solar longitude.

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arXiv2019

Estimating trajectories of meteors: an observational Monte Carlo approach -- II. Results

In the first paper of this series we examined existing methods of optical meteor trajectory estimation and developed a novel method which simultaneously uses both the geometry and the dynamics of meteors to constrain their trajectories. We also developed a simulator which uses an ablation model to generate realistic synthetic meteor trajectories which we use to test meteor trajectory solvers. In this second paper, we perform simulation validation to estimate radiant and velocity accuracy which may be achieved by various meteor observation systems as applied to several meteor showers. For low-resolution all-sky systems, where the meteor deceleration is generally not measurable, the multi-parameter fit method assuming a constant velocity better reproduces the radiant and speed of synthetic meteors. For moderate field of view systems, our novel method performs the best at all convergence angles, while multi-parameter fit methods generally produce larger speed errors. For high-resolution, narrow field of view systems, we find our new method of trajectory estimation reproduces radiant and speed more accurately than all other methods tested. The ablation properties of meteoroids are commonly found to be the limiting factor in velocity accuracy. We show that the true radiant dispersion of meteor showers can be reliably measured with moderate field of view (or more precise) systems provided appropriate methods of meteor trajectory estimation are employed. Finally, we compare estimated and real angular radiant uncertainty and show that for the solvers tested the real radiant error is on average underestimated by a factor of two.

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arXiv2019

Properties of meteors with double peaked light curves

Twenty-one meteors showing double peaked light curves were analysed with observations collected with the Canadian Automated Meteor Observatory tracking system. Each event has orbital information, photometry, and at least one high-resolution observation. Two distinct light curve shapes were found: sudden double peaked curves, and smooth double peaked curves. The sudden peaked curves were produced by objects on asteroidal orbits and mostly showed noticeable fragmentation, while the smooth peaked curves were produced by cometary meteoroids and predominantly showed little to no visible fragmentation. An attempt to model these meteors as single bodies with two chemical components was unsuccessful, implying that fragmentation must be included in meteoroid ablation models.

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arXiv2018

Modeling the measurement accuracy of pre-atmosphere velocities of meteoroids

Many existing optical meteor trajectory estimation methods use the approximation that the velocity of the meteor at the beginning of its luminous phase is equivalent to its velocity before atmospheric entry. Meteoroid kinetic energy loss prior to the luminous phase cannot be measured, but for some masses and entry geometries neglecting this loss may lead to non-negligible deceleration prior to thermal ablation. Using a numerical meteoroid ablation model, we simulate the kinematics of meteoroids beginning at 180 km with initial velocities ranging from 11 km/s to 71 km/s, and compare model velocities at the moment of detection to measurements. We validate the simulations by comparing the simulated luminous beginning heights with observed beginning heights of different populations of meteors detected with different optical systems. We find that most low-velocity meteoroids have a significant velocity difference of 100 m/s to 750 m/s (depending on meteoroid type, mass, and observation system). This systematic underestimate of meteoroid speeds also results in systematically lower semi-major axes for meteoroid orbits.

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arXiv2018

Luminous efficiency estimates of meteors -II. Application to Canadian Automated Meteor Observatory meteor events

Luminous efficiency is a necessary parameter for determining meteoroid mass from optical emission. Despite this importance, it is very poorly known, with previous results varying by up to two orders of magnitude for a given speed. We present the most recent study of luminous efficiency values determined with modern high-resolution instruments, by directly comparing dynamic and photometric meteoroid masses. Fifteen non-fragmenting meteoroids were used, with a further five clearly fragmenting events for comparison. Twelve of the fifteen non-fragmenting meteoroids had luminous efficiencies less than 1%, while the fragmenting meteoroids had upper limits of a few tens of percent. No clear trend with speed was seen, but there was a weak negative trend of luminous efficiency on meteoroid mass, implying that smaller meteoroids radiate more efficiently.

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arXiv2017

Generating realistic synthetic meteoroid orbits

Context. Generating a synthetic dataset of meteoroid orbits is a crucial step in analysing the probabilities of random grouping of meteoroid orbits in automated meteor shower surveys. Recent works have shown the importance of choosing a low similarity threshold value of meteoroid orbits, some pointing out that the recent meteor shower surveys produced false positives due to similarity thresholds which were too high. On the other hand, the methods of synthetic meteoroid orbit generation introduce additional biases into the data, thus making the final decision on an appropriate threshold value uncertain. Aims. As a part of the ongoing effort to determine the nature of meteor showers and improve automated methods, it was decided to tackle the problem of synthetic meteoroid orbit generation, the main goal being to reproduce the underlying structure and the statistics of the observed data in the synthetic orbits. Methods. A new method of generating synthetic meteoroid orbits using the Kernel Density Estimation method is presented. Several types of approaches are recommended, depending on whether one strives to preserve the data structure, the data statistics or to have a compromise between the two. Results. The improvements over the existing methods of synthetic orbit generation are demonstrated. The comparison between the previous and newly developed methods are given, as well as the visualization tools one can use to estimate the influence of different input parameters on the final data.

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arXiv2017

Luminous Efficiency Estimates of Meteors -I. Uncertainty analysis

The luminous efficiency of meteors is poorly known, but critical for determining the meteoroid mass. We present an uncertainty analysis of the luminous efficiency as determined by the classical ablation equations, and suggest a possible method for determining the luminous efficiency of real meteor events. We find that a two-term exponential fit to simulated lag data is able to reproduce simulated luminous efficiencies reasonably well.

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